Donald Trump and Marco Rubio
Donald Trump and Marco RubioREUTERS/Jonathan Drake

There is widespread and justifiable disappointment, unto anger, about the just announced hostage deal. Yes, thankfully, hostages are going to be released. But the price being paid is steep.

Terrorists returned, security areas withdrawn from, Hamas still intact, and perhaps of greatest concern, a seeming unanimity between Biden and Trump on the terms of the deal: all of this bodes ill, and smacks of diplomatic defeat being seized from the jaws of military victory.

But perhaps we are over enshrining the announced deal as the reality to come. Yes, the terms are onerous, and, yes, the deal raises questions about where Trump is in terms of supporting Israel and opposing Hamas.

However, I think that insufficient weight is being given to one overriding consideration: Trump expected, demanded and required a deal to be announced prior to his inauguration.

I believe that this necessity - for in truth Trump had backed himself into a corner with his “Hell to pay” threats - loomed over everything, drove the deal and now allows Trump to enter his second term as the can do tough guy in the neighborhood. It also enables him to avoid the actualization of the consequences of not having a deal, consequences he might not have even worked through.

It follows logically that if the whole situation had to be reverse engineered back from January 20th, then of course there was no time to restart or to materially alter the terms of the deal, terms that reportedly had been roughly agreed to back in May.

The tense meeting that was reported to have taken place between Trump’s Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff and PM Netanyahu undoubtedly came down to the make it or break choice that Bibi would have.

Either he would swallow hard and accept the deal, knowing that it was onerous unto unacceptable, yet also in stages and therefore not etched in stone, or he would gravely disappoint, offend and alienate the new incoming President.

Trump had previously sent messages or statements by himself and others expressing displeasure with Netanyahu, probably as a shot across the bow: as a reminder that there was not a lot of good will there to fall back on, and ultimately as a way for Bibi to see the inevitable necessity of supporting Trump.

So Bibi did the smart thing in terms of building a store of trust and good will with Trump. This might be tapped into rather soon, as Hamas is very likely to renege or to violate material aspects of the deal,

I think that the original hostage release in November 2023 should serve as the template regarding what has just been agreed to. At that time, there was a very significant number of hostages who were released and there was a pause and a pull back, both of which were decried as deleterious to the war effort.

But of course, the effort resumed and intensified. In retrospect therefore that deal must regarded as a coup for Israel.

What drove that release deal was military pressure, and the same considerations probably motivated Hamas in this current round. Dismemberment of command and control, the neutering of Hamas, the evisceration of Syria and the exposure of the vulnerability of Iran in all likelihood forced Hamas’s hand.

Not to mention the widespread, rampant and unforeseen ferocity of the IDF.

There is a great deal of handwringing about the undoubted likelihood that the murderous terrorists that will be released will return to their old habits and seek to once again murder, rape and pillage.

This is the sad reality, but it also must be remembered that Hamas is continuing to recruit new blood for their war effort, even in the face of widespread dismemberment, Such recruiting was encountered by the IDF when they returned to areas previously conquered and then withdrawn from.

In other words, the real issue is the durability and persistence of the Hamas war effort, whether or not it includes currently imprisoned terrorists.

For many of us, the greatest heartache in contemplating the deal is the nagging question of whether the heroic sacrifices of our incredible soldiers will be for naught, will have been in vain.

Again, I would urge us all not to jump to a definitive conclusion quite yet. Hopefully, as happened in November 2023, we will look back and say, yes there was disruption, yes, our job got more difficult and complicated, but we were able to secure the release of (most, all, many??) hostages, and then got back to the required task of dismantling Hamas.

We need to remember that Trump has appointed very pro-Israel people to key leadership roles in his government. The Secretaries of State and Defense, Marco Rubio and Pete Hegseth (who is likely to be approved despite initial concerns), are both firmly in Israel’s corner, and are knowledgeable about the situation in this neighborhood.

I believe that Trump himself is very much with us, and will regard supporting Israel as part of a key strategic construct needed to face down China, Russia and Iran.

He now is starting off his tenure with the geo-political wind at his back, and he knows that Bibi and Israel helped him to get exactly where he wanted to be.

Getting Trump to have a latter-day version of the 1980 Iranian hostage release, as Reagan assumed office, is an enormous credibility boost for him.

I for one would like to think that Trump knows that Israel helped him to achieve it, and that he will be returning the favor as his term unfolds.

So, friends, grit your teeth, and take a longer view. God willing, we will emerge from this intact, more unified, and ultimately, strengthened.

Douglas Altabef is Chairman of the Board of Im Tirtzu and a Director of the Israel Independence Fund.