Erfan Fard
Erfan FardCourtesy

During the mullah’s rule, thousands of Iranians were imprisoned, tortured, massacred, or disappeared. Today's revolution is against a dictatorship of mullahs and a corrupt personalist regime. . It is critically important to note that democracy cannot emerge in a religious dictatorship, as it will be collapsed dramatically. Reforming the present regime is not the answer.

There is not a shred of doubt that, since 1979, the mullah’s regime showed itself in its true colours. Tthere is no choice that attempts to restore democracy because the nature of religious tyranny is against any democratic reforms or the shift from theocracy to a democratic form of government.

Currently, the tumultuous and transformative events in Iran can be a shocking upheaval in the 21st century. Surely, overthrowing this political order in Iran will change the region vastly. However, there is no possibility to change the theocratic system in Iran through peaceable reform. Under the jackboot of mullahs, their propaganda and empty words have driven the Iranians to distraction. The pro-regime reformists want to settle for a promise of jam on their daily bread. Incrementally, this violent Islamic regime is unwilling and incapable of reform and improvement.

The lobbies' propaganda,though, has poisoned the mind of the West. Yet, the ruthless repression of mullahs in Iran managed to shock many western observers. The western media have broadcasted a persuasive shared narrative of resistance in Iran.

Therefore, the causes of the Iran revolution in 2022 at this particular moment may be relatively unimportant for the West. They do not like to support the regime change nor inviting the legitimate leaders of oppositions. Apparently, the odds are not very much in their favour. Seemingly, the EU are not willing to lend a helping hand to support democracy in Iran. Nonetheless, the frayed Iranian society without the help of the West is fighting for collapse of a longstanding dictatorship in Iran and to shift toward democracy.

Alas, the West have not educated themselves in learning the ideology of mullah institutions or the aspects of mullah history and the “uncivic” culture. Since the Safavid dynasty (1501 to 1736) up to these days, they had enough time to learn it, it was a long-term historical process, but because of their political interests they were unwilling to do so.

The European mentality has this challenge to face: to identify those trajectories which erected obstacles in Iran, for the existence of this so-called religious reason that meant Iranians could not lead to democracy and are so far away from it.

There are plenty of causes and political factors to believe in the possibility of regime change in Iran. there is a historical trend toward democracy. At a very broad level, Iran has experienced numerous “waves” of democratization in the 20th century during Pahlavi dynasty. During the almost 54 years between 1925 and 1979, the late kings struggled to adopt democracy.

With a lump in my throat, I must recount that all of them were followed by “reverse waves” after which Iran collapsed into dictatorship. This time, a fundamental regime change in Iran cannot be a smooth transition. Indeed, the institution of the mullahs is the main obstacle in this path to democracy. Traditionally, the religious background conditions and historical trajectories make some political outcomes more improbable or even impossible in Iran.

Academically, the main purpose and cause of any revolutions is clear. But, in Iran, the impact and existence of a vicious ideology of Khominisim is the most important factor. To assess this argument, it should be considered that the mullah’s institution is against any civilian political institutions in the society that pursue their own private business and their predisposed affairs. These supposed Holly men believe that they should have more rights than others, and they are by their nature above the law. Plausibly, this tyrannical ideology shaped in dark mosques makes any democratization or civic culture in Iran less likely.

In contrast, the civic community of Iranians view the mullah’s institution as illegitimate to rule the state. With a similar goal, the young generation of Iranians have the willingness to form a democratic transition and the emergence of democracy. In response, the political institution of mullahs uses force apparatus to suppress any peaceful demonstration.

Protesting in iran
Erfan Fard

The criminal mullahs have no respect for other views, they have no feeling of trust and shared responsibility for the expectation that others can change the mullah’s inefficient and mafia system tranquilly. By the lack of economical development, the mullah’s circle cannot change people’s values and the growth of more support of democracy. The economic transformation from rich to poor flames this likely political transformation from dictatorship to democracy in Iran as well. The processes driving economic modernization transformed and even demolished existed economic structures across Iran since 1979. the demise of agricultural and industrial systems and commercial investment had a tremendous impact on these nationwide protests in Iran.

So, the spark of this revolution did not occur abruptly or out of the blue. It’s triggered by multiple causes. For 44 years, the Iranians suffered and had showed their grievances in more than 18 protests which are the political consequences of the 1979 revolt. The logic of this argument with regard to regime change depends on the strength of newly established revolutionaries’ groups. In turn, the mullahs are fighting to retain their privileged positions and access to power.

Truly, the action of Iranians positioned in the diaspora is insufficient, sluggish, sporadic and shows they have no desire for regime change. Conspicuously, the only legitimate figure is the crown prince Reza Pahlavi. Behind this belief, of course, the discourse of regime change among the opposition is full of fallacies, ambiguity, intolerance, and conspiratorial competition.

Simultaneously, there is no tendency to make a coalition among these egotistical competitors who have negative publicity. Conversely, with the lack of articulating a common strategy the most Saudi-backed narcists clique instead of assisting a figure like Reza Pahlavi, they are busy in an erosive way planning various conspiracies against him.

Without leadership and an ideological plan, it will be hard to accomplish the regime change. This points up the fact that the only influential figure with a charisma who guide his followers’ energy and passion is Reza Pahlavi. He could virally communicate and spread his message to be resonated across the country. The protesters lack leadership and concrete plans for action. He could attract mass support among young generation through media.

In global perspective, the lack of partnership among the opposition alarmed the silent West so as not to support the Iran revolution. Consistently, the world is always watching with different appraisals. Soon, the West will intervene effectively if the context of revolution permit it.

Protesting in Iran
Erfan Fard

More broadly, a lot of factors can influence the development of the revolutionary movement in 2022. people’ aggregate contributing to a movement at various levels, they are participating in protests at varying frequencies. considerably, the only motivation for the resilient young generation is an Iranian nationalism which conceptualizes the process of inspiring regime change in Iran. Nationalism is a powerful unifying motivation which shows itself behind the goal of revolution in Iran.

This they do via a mechanism to reframing the supposed structure to maximize the likelihood of regime change and the depth of the revolutionary coalition inside Iran. Every now and then, the formal literature on citizen participation in anti-regime protests implicitly signals a successful revolution. The Iranian citizens’ believe in the likelihood of success, for this reason, they are actively protesting on the streets courageously. They learned from previous protest movements’ successes and failures, from their tactics and methods.

In essence, the anarchistic rebellions and revolt of 1979 in Iran based on terrorists was a tragedy - or a nightmare. Optimistically, this real revolution in 2022 might be a brilliant triumph. Emphatically, a large proportion of the Iranian society become extremely frustrated and rebellious against the mullah’s regime. The truth is that, with such quality, this phenomenon of political revolution will come to fruition.

Eventually, the continuance of this revolutionary movement will paralyze state administrative and coercive powers.


Erfan Fardis a counter-terrorism analyst and Middle East Studies researcher based in Washington, DC. He is in Middle Eastern regional security affairs with a particular focus on Iran, counter terrorism, IRGC, MOIS and ethnic conflicts in MENA .He graduated in International Security Studies (London M. University, UK), and in International Relations (CSU-LA). He is fluent in Persian, Kurdish, Arabic and English. / Follow him from this twitter account @EQFARD