There is much more going on than meets the eye. Way more.
First, the weak American presidency became the trigger for the different national interests to come to a head. That American weakness became very obvious during the Afghanistan withdrawal debacle. After Afghanistan it was clear to everyone that the American world policeman has retired.
The old latent conflicts between nations and mutual aggressive moves, exploded. It all depends from which vantage point you look and it largely makes all sense if you make certain assumptions.
Let us start from the Ukraine itself. It had little to gain from any changes in international configurations and a lot to lose. This is why Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy hoped to be left alone. That was a vain hope.
Let us look at the other players;
China has huge population and commensurate needs for natural resources. China is driven by the need to confront America and challenge it for world domination. To do this, China must control its sea lanes to facilitate the natural resource supplies from Africa and South America. Taiwan is just a little warm up to open the Chinese sea lanes. The Road and Belt initiative is an additional way to control part of Asia and obtain resources.
But there is a much simpler way for China to get natural resources. The Russian Siberia! Russians control the enormous mineral wealth of Siberia inhabited by a very minimal Russian population there. Russia has little industry and little use for Siberia except to feed their imperial ego. Siberia to the North of China looks like a low hanging fruit ready for plucking. Sooner or later China will reach for Siberia. Putin and the Russian elites know this. It must be a nightmare for Kremlin rulers that is keeping them awake at night.
How can Russia protect its future? The solution is for Russia to reconstitute the Soviet empire. But his can not be done without modern technology. Where from is Russia to get it? Here comes Germany with its large and modern industrial power. A country traditionally friendly toward Russia, at least during these periods of history when they did not share a common border. Germany has been trying for years to gain controlling economic position in Europe using the EU system. Germany dominates the EU. This project is not going too well, despite some successes. Greece has swindled EU to the tune of $300 Billion, Italy, Spain and some others are unruly and financially undisciplined. To entice Germany, Putin must make an attractive offer to it.
What can be attractive? Together they split Poland and Czech Republic. Germany gets its old historic cities of Wroclaw, Gdansk the Sudeten land and much more. Maybe Kaliningrad too. Something akin to the old imperial border from before year 1914. For socioeconomic and cultural reasons, Germany is not ready today for such an offer, but that might change fast. At the moment Germany is progressive and woke. The power of mass media is enormous and Germans might be convinced that the old glory years of the Kaizer empire is a very admirable goal.
Russia had to obtain only two nods from abroad. One tacit nod from Germany and another, more explicit from China. They got both. This was enough for Putin to conclude that the time to act was now. In late February 2022 the Russian army made its decisive move. Putin was certain that politically he got full cover. He correctly assessed that The Western protestations would be just a meaningless political theater. As we watch the unfolding Ukrainian war, there is still one unknown left. How competent will be the Ukrainian resistance. As I write these words, the outcome is unknown and Russians are facing a stiff Ukrainian resistance.
Other countries very deeply affected by these events are Poland and the Baltic countries. Poland has lots to lose and it is the main free agent for change today. Most people there do not realize that this is to “be or not to be” moment for their country. Seldom in history Poland held in its hands the keys to the European political direction . This is such a moment. If Russia is allowed to conquer and destroy Ukrainian independence, the situation of Poland will become hopeless. Then it will be just a matter of time when Russia decides to move against Poland and use big part of it as a peace offering to the Germans. This might take a couple of years, because Russia will need to recruit Germany to throw their lot with them. Germany will he handsomely compensated and the two traditional occupiers of Polish lands will step again into their familiar roles.
Attacked from the East by Russia, Poland will invoke the Article 5 of the NATO treaty only to find out that it was just another worthless piece of paper. Poland already went through a similar exercise in September 1939 to find to its dismay that the French and British guarantees were worthless. Today belief in NATO in Poland is very strong. Since Baltic countries will be first to be taken by Russia, Poland will be able to see how NATO is going to betray its lesser members. That might come in a few months or a few years. But then it will be too late for Poland to act. It will just be left to wait for its own inevitable destruction.
Time to act for Poland is now! Now, when Russia is engaged in a deadly struggle with Ukraine and when German military is still impotent. What to do? Simple, but it takes guts. Poland should immediately mobilize and thrust its military units across the Belarus border due East toward Minsk. Use maximum force that Poland can muster. Do it fast, immediately! As Russian army is busy fighting Ukrainians, the Polish army should cut off the Russian forces engaged against Kiev and cut them off from the North. Then turn South toward Kiev and press the Russians against the Ukrainian defenses.
There is a good chance that the Russians taken from two sides will collapse or at least withdraw. In any case, it will be clear that Russia is not going to prevail and will be forced to give up. The Baltics are likely to help, so will other countries like Romania or Slovakia. This is the only move to save Poland long term! It is a very bold move and it is unfortunately very unlikely. Without diving into its internal politics, Poland is unlikely to do the only thing that can save it.
Finally, there is one important caveat to this bold plan for Poland. The Ukrainian resistance to the Russian onslaught must endure for weeks. If Ukrainians collapse quickly then this plan will clearly fail, but even then the situation of Poland will be no worse than if it did not do anything. It will simply be doomed but at least it will earn for Poland an eternal gratitude of the Ukrainian nation.
Not all is lost. Enter the United Kingdom. The UK understands what is going on. A Europe united by the German Russian alliance is a real possibility. Great Britain always tried to prevent Europe from being united. Coaxing Poland to enter the war today, is something that British have done on the Continent for ages. If the UK leaders manage to convince Poland that is their best interest and promise a substantial assistance, then Poland might go for it. Poles have a lot of respect for the Western powers and specially Great Britain.
Such is the state of world affairs in March of the year 2022.
Daniel Grynglas is a pro-Israeli activist and engineer whose family of Polish Jews emigrated to the US from Warsaw over forty years ago..