UK election: Boris Johnson poised to trounce Jeremy Corbyn

Conservatives hold double-digit lead over Labour ahead of general election as PM's approval rating surges and support for Corbyn plummets.

David Rosenberg,

Boris Johnson and Jeremy Corbyn
Boris Johnson and Jeremy Corbyn
REUTERS

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson is poised to win reelection next month in the UK’s general election, new polls show.

Johnson, who became premier this July following the resignation of Theresa May, holds a wide margin over his nearest rival, Labour Party chairman Jeremy Corbyn, according to recent polling data.

According to the first Ipsos/Mori poll released since new elections were set for December 12th, Johnson’s Conservatives now hold a whopping 17-point lead over Corbyn’s Labour, with 41% of respondents saying they plan to vote for the Conservatives, compared to just 24% who said they would vote for a Labour candidate for Parliament.

The Liberal Democrats netted 20% in the poll, while former UK Independence Party (UKIP) chief Nigel Farage’s Brexit Party received the support of 7% of respondents, compared to 3% for the Greens, 3% for the Scottish National Party, and 1% for the Welsh independence party Plaid Cymru.

The poll, which was released Friday and conducted between October 25th and 28th, with a sample of 1,007 respondents, also found that Johnson’s approval rating has risen dramatically.

While just 36% of respondents said they approved of Johnson’s job performance in the Ipsos/Mori poll conducted in mid-September, compared to 55% who disapproved for a net negative approval rating of -19%, the new Ipsos/Mori survey finds Johnson’s approval rating in positive territory.

A total of 46% of respondents now approve of the prime minister’s job performance, compared to 44% who disapprove, for a net rating of +2%. A recent poll by Opinium had similar results, with a 40% approval rating compared to a 38% disapproval, for a net approval of +2% - an increase of 15 points over the previous Opinium poll.

Jeremy Corbyn, however, received a strongly negative job approval rating, with 75% saying they disapproved of his job performance, compared to just 15% who approved, for a net rating of -60%, unchanged from the September Ipsos/Mori poll.

The Opinium poll was more favorable for Corbyn, but still showed the Labour chief’s approval rating underwater at 20% compared to 60% disapproval, for a net rating of -40%.

Other recent polls also show the Conservatives with a double-digit lead over Corbyn.

A Deltapoll published Sunday by the The Mail on Sunday gave the Conservatives a 12-point lead, 40 to 28, with the Liberal Democrats at 14%, Nigel Farage’s Brexit Party at 11%, the Scottish National Party at 3%, the Greens with 2%, and the right-wing UKIP tied with the Welsh Plaid Cymru party at 1% each.

The results from both the Deltapoll survey and the Ipsos/Mori poll suggest the Conservatives would win a clear majority in the 650-member British Parliament.

Based on the voting patterns in 2017, if the Conservatives were to win the popular vote by 17 points, as projected by the Ipsos/Mori poll, that would translate into a net gain of 112 seats for the Conservatives and a loss of 127 seats for Labour, giving the Conservatives 430 seats, or 104 more than is needed for a simple majority, compared to 185 seats for Labour.

If the Conservatives win by 12 points, as projected by the Deltapoll survey, they would be projected to win 388 seats total, compared to 185 for Labour.




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