Will the Jewish Home and Yisrael Beytenu be left out of the 21st Knesset?
Two new polls released Sunday evening show the Jewish Home failing to clear the 3.25% electoral minimum threshold, following the formation of a new party by two of the Jewish Home’s former leaders.
On Saturday night, Education Minister Naftali Bennett and Justice Minister Ayelet Shaked announced that they were leaving the Jewish Home party and would be forming a new faction, called the New Right (Hayamin Hahadash).
In polls taken since the announcement, the Jewish Home has fallen to between three to five seats – hovering around the 3.25% minimum threshold a party must receive in order to win representation in the Knesset. The 3.25% threshold is equivalent to 3.9 seats’ worth of votes in the 120-member legislature.
According to a survey by Direct Polls, which was published by Makor Rishon on Sunday, the Jewish Home cleared the threshold with five seats, compared to 14 for the New Right, led by Naftali Bennett and Ayelet Shaked.
Another survey released by Channel 2 Sunday night showed the Jewish Home barely clearing the threshold with just four seats.
Two other polls released on Sunday, however, showed the Jewish Home failing to reach the 3.25% threshold.
In the Direct Polls survey, the Likud would fall to 25 seats if new elections were held today, compared to the 30 it won in 2015.
Former IDF chief of staff Benny Gantz’s new Hosen L’Yisrael (Resilience for Israel) party would become the second largest party, with 15 seats – a gain of 4 mandates – while the New Right would be in a close third, with 14 seats.
Yesh Atid would lose a mandate, falling from 11 to 10 seats, while the Zionist Union would plummet from 24 seats to just 9.
The Jewish Home party would win just five seats, a loss of three compared to 2015, while Yisrael Beytenu would also win five seats – one less than in 2015 but the same number the party has held since MK Orly Levy bolted the faction in 2016.
Levy’s new party, Gesher, would win four seats, as would Kulanu, a loss of six mandates compared to 2015.
The predominantly Arab Joint List party would win 12 seats, a loss of 1 mandate, while the far-left Meretz would retain its five seats.
Among the haredi parties, Shas would fall from seven seats to five, while United Torah Judaism would rise from six to seven seats.
According to the Channel 2 poll, the Likud would win 28 seats, compared to 14 for Hosen L’Yisrael, 12 for Yesh Atid, and just 6 for the New Right.
The Zionist Union would win nine seats, compared to 12 for the Joint List, 6 for Meretz, and 5 for Orly Levy’s new Gesher faction.
The Jewish Home would win four seats, while Yisrael Beytenu would receive five, and Kulanu six.
Shas would win six seats, while UTJ would rise to seven.
A poll released by Channel 10, conducted by the Midgam agency, shows the Likud retaining its 30 seats, and the New Right winning 8 mandates, while the Jewish Home fails to clear the electoral threshold, receiving just three seats-worth of votes.
Hosen L’Yisrael would win 14 seats according to the survey, compared to 11 for Yesh Atid, 8 for the Zionist Union, and 13 for the Joint List.
Yisrael Beytenu would win five seats, as would Shas, Gesher, and Meretz.
United Torah Judaism would rise to seven seats, while Kulanu would fall to six.
A fourth survey, conducted by the Sarid agency on behalf of Kan, also shows the Jewish Home failing to pass the electoral threshold. According to the poll, former Defense Minister Avigdor Liberman’s Yisrael Beytenu would also fail to pass the threshold.
The poll shows the Likud winning 27 seats, compared to 14 for the New Right, 16 for Yesh Atid, 13 for Hosen L’Yisrael, and 12 for the Joint List.
The Zionist Union would fall to nine seats, according to the poll, while Meretz would rise to six.
Gesher would receive five seats, while Kulanu would win seven.
Shas would barely clear the electoral threshold with four, compared to seven for UTJ.