Likud surges to double-digit lead in latest poll

Netanyahu would easily win reelection, says latest poll, showing big gains for Jewish Home. Shas in danger of failing to enter next Knesset.

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David Rosenberg,

Netanyahu and Bennett
Netanyahu and Bennett
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Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu and his Likud party would easily win an additional term if elections were held today, according to a new poll released Thursday evening.

The latest Knesset survey by Dr. Yitzhak Katz’s Maagar Mohot polling agency shows the Likud opening up a 10-seat lead over its closest competitor, former Finance Minister Yair Lapid’s Yesh Atid. While the Likud would, according to the poll, win 30 seats, Yesh Atid would win just 20.

While the Likud currently holds 30 seats, polling since the 2015 election has shown the party averaging just 25. Yesh Atid, which won just 11 in 2015, had shown significant gains over the past two years before peaking this spring.

In the last Maagar Mohot poll, conducted in March, Yesh Atid led the Likud 26 to 24.

According to the latest poll, Netanyahu’s present coalition partners would retain 66 of the 67 seats they currently hold, with a net loss of just one mandate.

Education Minister Naftali Bennett’s Jewish Home party showed the most substantial gains among coalition members, showing a 50% increase in mandates, from the 8 it won in 2015 to 12 seats.

The haredi United Torah Judaism party remained stable at six seats, while Shas dropped three, from seven to four. Shas, which once won 17 mandates and regularly won 10-12 seats, is now in danger of falling below the 3.25% minimum threshold, and thus being excluded from the next Knesset.

Defense Minister Avigdor Liberman’s Yisrael Beytenu, which won six seats in 2015, fell one seat to five.

The Zionist Union party, an amalgamation of Labor and the Hatnua faction, plummeted from the 24 mandates won in 2015 to just 16 seats.

The far-left Meretz part remained stable at 5 seats, while the predominantly Arab Joint List party retained its 13 mandates.