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New Poll Shows Likud-Beyteinu Still Far Ahead, Kadima Near Dead

A new poll shows that if elections were held now, the combined Likud-Yisrael Beiteinu list would gain 39 seats, far ahead of competitors
By David Lev
First Publish: 12/13/2012, 3:49 PM

Mofaz, Livni
Mofaz, Livni
Israel news photo: Flash 90

Tzippy Livni's “The Movement” (Hatnu'a) has so far failed to shake the dominance of the Likud and the right in polls just weeks prior to the upcoming Israeli elections. Nearly a week after Livni announced that she would run a list for the Knesset, and convinced several high-profile MKs from other parties, especially Kadima, to join her, polls show that her party is likely to gain only nine seats in the 19th Knesset – and that most of those seats come at the expense of her former Kadima party.

A new poll in Yisrael Hayom shows that if elections were held now, the combined Likud-Yisrael Beiteinu list would gain 39 seats, compared to just 9 for Livni's party, even with the additon of Amir Peretz. Labor, with 19 seats, remains virtually unchanged from last week's polls.

An interesting contest is shaping up for the title of “third biggest party.” Four lists are contenders, with Shas polling at 12 seats, Bayit Yehudi with 10, while Livni's list, along with Yair Lapid's Yesh Atid, are likely to receive 9 seats, according to polls. United Torah Judaism is likely to get 5 seats, the poll says, while Meretz, Hadash, and Ra'am-Ta'al – the latter two Arab parties – would get 4 each if elections were held today. Arab party Balad would get three seats. Closing out the list is Kadima, which is down to two seats.

Dropping below the minimum required votes for a Knesset seat altogether is Am Shalem, headed by Rabbi Haim Amsalem, and the Otzma party of MKs Aryeh Eldad and Michael Ben-Ari. In previous polls, both parties had been seen as getting 2-3 seats.