The Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs issued today a report entitled "What Are the Palestinians Planning after September?" authoredby the Center's veteran Arab affairs exper tPinhas Inbari.
Inbari originally wrote for Al Hamishmar the daily of the left wing MAPAM party (both are defunct with MAPAM having been absorbed into Meretz) but was always a realist on the Palestinian issue. From an analysis of the Palestinian documents and statements He deduces the following:
- After the Palestinians have secured a UN General Assembly endorsement of statehood they will enjoy legitimacy for escalating the conflict. They will proceed with their strategy of stages and having negated the results of the Six-Day War, they plan to negate the War of Independence by seeking recognition of the 1947 partition lines.
- As part of these efforts preparations are beginning for a "Third Intifada" by Mohammed Abbas' Fatah. Ahmad Abu Ruteima, a Hamas activist in Gaza, describes the objective of the Third Intifada: "The struggle is about the very existence of Israel and not about the 1967 borders. The defense minister, Ehud Barak, confirmed that the [Israeli] army is incapable of confronting a human influx from all directions."
- A senior member of the Fatah Revolutionary Council, Hatem Abd al-Qader, noted that in case Israel obstructs the Palestinians' political plans, Abbas will step down, the PA will dissolve itself, and nothing will prevent the Palestinians from returning to the struggle. New elections will produce a new president from the younger generation, who will abolish the Oslo agreements.
- The PLO will adamantly rule out swaps between the Palestinian-populated areas in the Israeli Triangle region and the settlement blocs. The PLO, views the Palestinian-populated areas in Israel as a springboard for pushing Israel back to the 1947 borders or even further, as a territorial prelude for the right of the refugees to return into Israel.
The full report can be viewed on the Center's website www.jcpa.org