Less than 50% of Israelis of military service age (18 to 45) are in the IDF’s order of battle, and only 20% do reserve duty, the outgoing IDF Personnel Branch Chief said Sunday at the Caesarea Conference. The number on which this percentage is based includes Israeli Arabs, those unfit for service, and all other sectors.
He did not give comparative statistics or past percentages, but Major General Avi Zamir claimed that the “people’s army” model that Israel prides itself upon has changed where reserve duty is concerned.
Zamir did not explain what an up-to-date "people's army" would be. The makeup of Israel's population is in flux and possibly the definition of "people's army" is as well. He did not mention the growing number of committed Religious Zionist and Hareidi Zionist (Chardal) soldiers and officers, whose percent of the population is on the rise and who will be reservists in the future, nor the Ethiopian sector whose younger generation is beginning to be felt in the army.
However, his predecessor Maj. Gen. (res.) Elazar Stern claimed, during the Cast Lead operation, that the population of Tel Aviv and suburbs avoid army duty in greater proportions than previous years.
Zamir also foresaw a “demographic problem”. By 2015, he said, 30% of first graders will be from the hareidi-religious sector, most of which does not serve in the army at present. At the present time, 13% of military age men avoid military service because they are hareidi. This proportion, he predicted, will rise to 20% by 2020.
Statistical extrapolations can not always take all factors into account. Zamir did not mention the growing number of hareidi men who do serve in the IDF, and their growing acceptance within the hareidi community. Besides the Netzach Yehuda Battalion, there are now hareidim in the Intelligence Corps, the Shachar track and elsewhere. The government decided eariler this year to fund new programs to encourage hareidi participation in the military or alternative national service tracks.
When talking about army exemptions for girls, Zamir did not mention the thousands in the non-army National Service track, but said only that there are girls obtaining exemptions on religious grounds who are not really religious.
By 2015, 29% of military age men will be Arabs, he estimated, about 5% will be abroad and 15% will not complete full military service. All in all, 50%-60% of men will either be exempt from service or serve an incomplete term in the military.This may be enough serve Israel's defense needs, but if it does happen, the makeup of the army will have changed.