With the memories of the early winter drought still fresh in the minds of most Israelis, meteorologist Shlomo Oberman says rainfall in the north this year has actually been higher than average – and that more is still to come.
Oberman, of the Meteotek company, says of this year's winter, "It started tragically, but it has mostly worked itself out – and is still far from over."
Israel counts on the winter rains not only for agriculture, but also to fill its reservoirs – mainly the Kinneret (Sea of Galilee). Water level there has now climbed to 212.56 meters below sea level, having gained 1.56 meters (five feet, two inches) this winter.
The "red line" below which water authorities try not to allow the Kinneret to drop is 213 meters below sea level. When the level climbs to 208.8, as it did in the winter of '92, the Degania dam is opened, emptying out water at the rate of 8 centimeters a day towards the southern Jordan River and the Dead Sea. (The dam was opened in 1968, but it didn't help; the 8 centimeters were offset by 20 centimeters of rain and runoff, and the city of Tiberias was slightly flooded.)
"The weather system of the past few days dropped much rain in the north," Oberman said, "and more is expected this Sabbath, and again on Monday and Tuesday. It's just not over til it's over."
"In Haifa, where the average rainfall is 530 millimeters (almost 2.1 inches), 558 have already fallen," Oberman said happily, "and in Rosh Pina, 560 have fallen where the average is 507."
The rains taper off as they go southward: In Tel Aviv, 71% of the average of 560 has fallen; in Jerusalem, it has been 57% of 600, and in the Negev, the situation is even worse.
"The combination of late rains and a leap year [in which, because of the way the Jewish lunar-based calendar is juxtaposed with the solar calendar, the autumn begins "early" and an extra month is added before Passover – ed.] confused matters," Oberman said. "We are now sort of at the beginning of spring, with hot days and then cold days. But what's for sure is that this coming Passover, the flowers will be blossoming in full strength, for the hikers' pleasure."