One of the questions surrounding the repression of opposition leaders in Russia is-- why bother? The opposition is divided and pathetic in any case .
Boris Nemstov and Eduard Limonov had just gotten out of jail after they were arrested during their last demonstration and the opposition was already squabbling over the number of participants that would be included in their application for the next demonstration on January 31. Limonov, who opposes the very idea of seeking permission for a demonstration from the authorities, is seeking a rally of 2500 people in the expectation that he will be turned down. Then he will protest anyway even at the risk of arrest.
Other opposition leaders prefer working within the law and have therefore submitted an application for 1500 participants in the hope that the authorities will grant it. A third group will try to maintain unity by attending both demonstrations. In any case the opposition is scaling down its protests from 8 demonstrations to 4 in the coming year.
The confusion within the opposition was highlighted by Nemtsov. Upon his release, he reacted to the Jasmine Revolution in Tunisia, hailing it as a beacon for Russia as it proved that even a long entrenched regime could be dislodged by an aroused populace. "Tunisia's example is remarkable. Tunisia is far away, Muslim, African but it is a country that has much in common with Russia,," he said.
But did he really mean street riots following the Tunisian model to get rid of Vladimir Putin? Not quite. His Solidarity movement would act constitutionally and name a presidential candidate for the 2012 elections even though Nemtsov already predicted "massive repression" in the run-up to 2012 elections.
Nemtsov and other opposition leaders are looking for help from outside. They do not want to appeal for collective sanctions against Russia that would cast them as traitors and instead are calling for targeted sanctions against the Russian leadership. This would mean denying Putin and other higher ups a visa to come to the West because Putin had turned to Russian Constitution into a sham. The foreign assets of the Russian leadership would be seized.
Other opposition leaders have pinned their hopes on the European Court of Human Rights to protest the rigged trials of opposition leaders and the harassment of the opposition prior to the State Duma elections in December and the presidential election in March 2012. This is a throwback to tactics used during the Soviet Union but the situations are not comparable.
Aside from verbal protests it is difficult to see the United States and Europe bestirring themselves on behalf of the Russian opposition. The United States requires Russian support over Iran and Afghanistan, while the Europeans are dependent on Russia for their energy.