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Poll: New Barak Faction Would Barely Survive Elections

Fifty three percent of the public think Labor split has no effect on coalition stability, or enhances it.
By Gil Ronen
First Publish: 1/17/2011, 8:59 PM / Last Update: 1/17/2011, 9:21 PM

Flash 90

Three percent of the public are certain that they would vote for "Independence," the new faction formed by former Labor party chief Ehud Barak, according to a quick poll carried out by the "Panels "polling institute for the Knesset Channel.

This result, which shows a kernel of persistent support for Barak, may mean that his faction stands a chance of surviving new elections, if these are held anytime soon. However, 83% of the public said they were certain not to vote for Barak's faction.

According to the poll, 37% of the public think that the split in Labor hurts the present coalition's chances of surviving two more years and completing its term. However, 24% do not think the split will have any effect on the coalition's chances of survival, and 29% think it actually improves its chances of staying in power.

Taken together, the last two stats mean that 53% of the public believe the split either has no effect on, or improves, the coalition's stability.

Another "instant poll" by the Dialogue Institute for Channel 10 showed that were elections to be held today, Barak's faction would gain 3 Knesset seats. Labor and Meretz would each have six seats (compared to 13 and 3, respectively, in the present Knesset).

Likud would grow from the 27 seats it has at present to 30, Kadima would shrink slightly from 28 to 27, and Avigdor Liberman's party would grow from 15 to 17 seats.

Barak's plan to split from Labor, together with four other Labor Mks, was hatched secretly and took the Israeli political world, including reporters, by surprise.