Fischer: Low Chances of Second Recession
Bank of Israel Governor: chances of a second recession are no more than 25%.
By Gil Ronen
First Publish: 9/5/2010, 9:07 PM / Last Update: 9/5/2010, 9:30 PM
Prof. Stanley Fischer, Governor of the Bank of Israel, estimated Sunday that the chances of another global recession affecting Israel anytime soon are low. “I imagine that we are in a period of fluctuation,” he said at an Export Institute conference, “but the likelihood that economists whom I respect give a second recession is 25%, no more than that. If it does happen then it will mostly be in the US, and a slowdown in growth in north-central Europe.”
Israel succeeds less in exports to countries that grow quickly, and does better in the US and the developed markets, he said.
The proportion of exports in the domestic product is larger in Israel than in any other OECD country except Ireland, Fischer said. However, he added, while the percentage of American imports that come from Israel grew to 0.69% in recent years, the US's portion of the total global merchandise imports dropped from 25% to 21% following the economic crisis. "This means that we may have grown, but we did so in a market whose share in the world is declining,” he said.
The picture is different with regard to Israeli exports to the countries known as BRIC: Brazil, Russia, India and China. While Israel's share in these countries' imports has not grown by much, these countries have doubled their share in world trade since 2000.