Avigdor Lieberman
Avigdor Lieberman

While the Yisrael Beiteinu (Israel Our Home) party, headed by Avigdor Lieberman, continues to do better in the polls than Labor, it may be headed for the opposition – while the new government may well include half of Kadima.<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" />

These are just two of the surprises that <?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:smarttags" />Israel may be in for following the elections to be held only nine days from now.

Recent polls suggest that Yisrael Beiteinu – which has the image of a right-wing party but whose platform indicates otherwise – will soon replace the historic Labor Party as one of Israel’s  three largest parties.

Positions espoused by Lieberman that are not quite in nationalist camp consensus include: Easing of marriage laws in opposition to Chief Rabbinate guidelines, easing of conversion-to-Judaism guidelines, giving away Arab-populated areas in the Galilee in exchange for Jewish blocs in Judea/Samaria, and the like.

Given the likelihood that the Likud will win the upcoming elections and form Israel’s next government, it has long been a given that Yisrael Beiteinu will be a senior party in the coalition.  The parties’ leaders, Binyamin Netanyahu and Lieberman, have been close political partners for much of the last 15-year period.

Lieberman May Lead Party Out

Despite these givens, however, it appears that Lieberman’s party may well be headed for the opposition.  This, the Yisrael HaYom (Israel Today) daily reports, is largely because of personal considerations: Old criminal charges against Lieberman have been raised by the police once again, and it is likely that he will be disqualified from receiving one of the senior Cabinet portfolios he would like – namely, Finance, Justice, or Public Security.

In addition, if he takes a different portfolio and is served with an indictment, he would have to resign from the Cabinet – thus leaving his fellow party members in the Cabinet without him.  Neither of these two scenarios are to his liking, according to the report.

Lieberman’s Non-Nationalist Positions

Lieberman has come under attack from the nationalist camp of late.  “He is yet likely to recommend that Tzipi Livni, and not Netanyahu, be the one to form the government,” said Ichud HaLeumim (National Union) leader Yaakov "Ketzaleh" Katz over the weekend.  Some positions espoused by Lieberman that are not quite in nationalist camp consensus include: Easing of marriage laws in opposition to Chief Rabbinate guidelines, easing of conversion-to-Judaism guidelines, giving away Um el-Fahm and other Arab-populated areas in the Galilee in exchange for Jewish blocs in Judea and Samaria, and the like.

Meanwhile, in the Kadima party, signs of the internal bitterness that will surface after its expected loss in the upcoming elections are beginning to surface.  Several possibilities are being talked about by leading Kadima members who are not willing to be named: Early primaries to replace Tzipi Livni as party leader is one of them, with Sha’ul Mofaz – who lost narrowly to Livni in his previous bid to head the party – and Dalia Itzik said to be interested in the post.  In addition, it could be that some leading Kadima members will break off from the party in order to join the Likud-led government.

It will be recalled that Kadima was formed just over three years ago, mainly as a Likud breakaway.  Though Chaim Ramon, Shimon Peres and Itzik joined from the Labor Party, nearly all on its other leading members stemmed from the Likud. In addition to party founder Ariel Sharon and Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, neither of whom ill play a role in the next Knesset, these include Ministers Mofaz, Meir Sheetrit, Ruchama Avraham-Balila, Ze’ev Boim, Tzachi HaNegbi, Roni Bar-On, Marina Solodkin, Gideon Ezra, Yaakov Edri, and others.