A powerful chorus in this country will now call for Livni to be elected, because her commitment to compromise will suit Obama’s initial agenda.
The election of Barack Obama, an epochal event in America’s history, nevertheless fills many people with trepidation.
At a time when America and its allies face their greatest international challenge since the passing of the Cold War, Obama comes to his office with limited experience of international affairs. His perception of the field, insofar as he is known to have expressed it, seems informed partly by naïve and ideologically motivated preconceptions: to solve a conflict, sit down with an adversary, decide on a bargain, implement it, and then go home. This seems to be his approach to adversaries like Iran.
With respect to the Middle East, his strategy appears to be to form a coalition against Iran by forcing Israel to “solve” its problems with Syria and the Palestinians through territorial withdrawals, after which a pro-Western Syria and a democratic and independent Palestine will no doubt emerge.
Nothing could be more important than to disabuse the new American president of these naive perceptions, if indeed they are his, as fast as possible. In recent years most Israelis, if not their current leaders now in the twilight of their term, have learned that in this region, one’s adversary’s ambitions are not determined by any particular goal, but by perceptions of one’s own morale and vulnerability. One who surrenders and retreats in hopes of gaining a little peace places his own survival in jeopardy. Such has been Israel’s experience at least since the year 2000, and such will be the experience of the United States if it sacrifices the interests of its allies in the pursuit of facile and elusive “solutions.”
The fact is that Israel's power is the keystone of any regional coalition against Iran, even if Israel’s more moderate Arab neighbors would prefer not to admit that fact in public. Anything that weakens Israel will weaken, not strengthen, America’s ability to form a regional coalition against Iran, and will tempt Arab leaders to succumb to popular pressure to concentrate on further dissecting Israel rather than on containing Iran.
Obama’s election is said by certain Israeli pundits to be “good for” Tzipi Livni. Obama will pressure Israel into retreating, and Livni is more than ready to retreat, even though last night’s rockets on the city of Ashkelon, indicate how likely it is that territorial concessions will incline our enemies to peace. A powerful chorus in this country will now call for Livni to be elected, because her commitment to searching for compromise, even when none exists, will suit Obama’s initial agenda.
What Israel needs is not an easy time in Washington, but a leader who rationally and consistently will educate the American administration that compromise on vital interests is a sure path to more violence.
Yet, the interests of the United States, of Israel, and indeed of America’s other allies in the region do not depend on whether smiles or frowns initially characterize relations between the White House and Israel's next prime minister. What Israel needs is not an easy time in Washington, but a leader who fearlessly, rationally and consistently, without needless friction, but without flinching from friction when necessary, will educate the American administration to the fact that compromise on vital interests is a sure path to more violence and a more intractable conflict and in any case is no longer on Israel’s agenda.
Any Israeli prime minister who undertakes this role will have to be brave and determined, for he will face not only foreign pressure, but vicious attempts to undermine him at home. He will need a solid and unflinching political base on which to stand.
The American elections are over, but Israel's are yet in the balance. There is much we can yet do to elect that prime minister—and to provide him with a solid political base. The most important arena in this regard are the primary elections in the Likud. The people whom Netanyahu takes with him into the Knesset will, to a decisive degree, determine how well he can stand up for what he knows are Israel’s vital interests.
There are excellent, unflinching candidates for the Likud list, less well known than Dr. Binyamin Begin, but no less dedicated. They need votes, and they need other forms of material help in getting out the vote that concerned individuals here and abroad can provide. Now is the time to act, because the Likud primaries are but one month away.