The chances of concluding a deal to bring back home kidnapped IDF soldier Gilad Shalit "are not very good," because of Hamas's new stranglehold on Gaza, according to a Tel Aviv-based think tank.
Hamas has tightened its control over Gaza to the point that it may have the confidence to become even more rigid in negotiating with Israel, wrote Shlomo Brom, senior researcher of the Institute for National Security Studies 
The new situation has made it easier for Hamas to pull the strings.
(INSS).
Hamas has accomplished "an almost total elimination of Fatah's presence there," Brom wrote, and Israel may have to decide whether to invade the region and topple the terrorist regime or reach an understanding with it.
Recent clashes in which Hamas has proved superior have created a new reality that indicates "it will only be possible to bring down the Hamas government in Gaza through a military takeover of the Gaza Strip," Brom concluded.
He wrote that Israel and the Palestinian Authority (PA) reacted to Hamas gains by cooperating to destroy the Hamas infrastructure in Judea and Samaria, making the area's separation from Gaza more pronounced.
Hamas wrested control from Fatah following a militia war last summer, but Fatah leaders were able to travel between Gaza and Judea and Samaria, and Fatah continued to operate in Gaza.
Brom explained that when Fatah carried out a bombing operation several weeks ago that killed five terrorists belonging to Hamas, the response was a clampdown n all Fatah activities.
"It is safe to assume that Hamas decided on this objective long ago because all attempts at dialogue with Fatah had failed," Brom wrote. "The PA in the West Bank, under Abbas's leadership and in cooperation with Israel, is engaged in an ongoing effort to destroy the Hamas infrastructure there, and Fatah operatives in the Strip continued to challenge Hamas, in part through firing rockets into Israel in order to demonstrate that Hamas control of the Gaza Strip is weak."
Hamas has taken control of all of Fatah's assets and has arrested all of Fatah's top leaders. It put a last nail in Fatah's coffin with the attack on the Fatah-aligned Hilles clan two weeks ago. Ahmed Hilles, the senior figure in the clan, had served as Fatah's director-general in Gaza.
The previous surrender of the Army of Islam and other terrorist clans to Hamas not only gave Hamas more control but also enabled it to increase its stockpile of weapons by confiscating rival terrorists' arms.
Brom also said that the new situation has made it easier for Hamas to pull the strings on rocket attacks on Israel. "As long as Hamas is interested in continuing the ceasefire, it will likely be upheld without significant violations," he reasoned. "By the same token, Hamas will also be able to fulfill any understanding it might reach with Israel or other parties, such as Egypt and the international community."
Israel will be left with a reality which "it will be possible to… arrive at understandings with Hamas if it receives something in return that serves its interests, such as opening the Rafiah crossing."