The leadership of the genocidal Islamic group Hamas has intensified its psychological warfare against Israel recently, the Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs (JCPA) has estimated. The central messages in Hamas's psychological campaign of intimidation and demoralization against Israel are:

- Israel is to blame for the failure of the Egyptian mediation initiative between itself and Hamas.

- The window of opportunity for reaching an agreement with Hamas is about to close.

- Shalit will be executed if Israel does not agree to the demands of the terrorists who are holding him and the subsequent negotiations will be "for his bones."

- If the Rafiah crossing is not reopened soon, this will lead to "an explosion."

Psychological warfare

These threats are part of the psychological warfare campaign that Hamas has been carrying out against Israel in an attempt to cause the Israeli population and the Shalit family to put pressure on the Israeli government to cave in to Hamas. This is why Hamas is sounding threats on a regular basis, according to the JCPA's Yonatan Dahuh-Levi. It is also the reason for the fact that Hamas's leaders have chosen to directly address the Shalit family and the Israeli public, while blaming Prime Minister Ehud Olmert for the "serious consequences" that may follow.

However, Hamas has no interest in losing Shalit – its "live card" in the poker game against Israel –

Hamas says Shalit will be executed if Israel does not agree to its demands.

because it would lose more than it would gain by this. Internally, it would be perceived as a strategic failure in the effort to secure the release of Arab terrorists in Israeli jails, and could lead to severe criticism from the prisoners' families. Diplomatically, Hamas would risk losing all remaining international legitimacy for its regime and risk having its senior leadership wiped out by Israel. "For Hamas, a live Gilad Shalit has an important role in any possible escalation scenario in Gaza, in restraining a large scale Israeli operation to topple Hamas," explains Dahuh-Levi. 

Hamas has time

Judging by the way Hamas is conducting the indirect negotiations with Israel, it appears to feel it is in a position of strength. The terror group is unwilling to compromise on any issue and insists upon dictating its terms to Israel: release of all the prisoners it demanded from the outset, and Israeli agreement to a lull in fighting in Gaza as well as in Judea and Samaria, and the reopening of the Rafiah crossing with no Israeli involvement in its control.

Hamas has time, according to this analysis: it is getting ready for a final takeover of the "Palestinian people." Mahmoud Abbas's term as PA chairman is due to end in early 2009 and Hamas will not recognize him after this date. It intends to crown Khaled Mashaal as its national leader. This task should be made easier by the fact that Israel and the PA will fail, in Hamas's estimation, to meet the deadline set in Annapolis for successful completion of final status talks, by the end of 2008.