Professor Neil Ferguson, a top UK epidemiologist, has said that even if the most vulnerable groups are almost totally protected from social contacts, the death rate from Covid-19 would still be extremely high.
Speaking to The Telegraph, Adam Kucharski, associate professor at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, confirmed Ferguson's assessment, stating that even if "people [are] self-isolating when they’re ill, shielding older groups, school closures - none of these measures alone would do enough to contain the outbreak and we’d still see intensive care units (ICU) massively over capacity."
He added that some form of social distancing would be vital until an effective vaccine is found, noting that even in places with very high rates of contagion such as New York, studies have indicated that only around 20% of the population have contracted the virus so far, which is a much lower figure than one would need to see in order to achieve herd immunity.