Between the April and September elections, the only political faction to have declined in voter participation was the national-religious sector, which saw a 3% decline in voting. This does not sound significant but it could represent one additional mandate. In the 2015 elections, 72% of those who identified with the Likud voted, but in 2019 only 65% of Likudniks voted in both the April and September elections. However, even if that percentage returned to 72%, it would not mean victory for the right.
In terms of the larger electoral picture, the only way the right-wing bloc will reach 61 mandates is if its parties receive an additional 200-250,000 votes from people who did not vote in either of the previous elections, a near impossibility. Thus, it appears that, just as in the previous elections, neither of the two large political blocs will be able to form a government. At the same time, it is unlikely that there will be a fourth round of elections because both blocks see risk and unpredictability in such a scenario.
The above data and analysis was provided by Asher Cohen, political science professor at Bar-Ilan University.