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      Fundamentally Freund
      by Michael Freund
      An alternative approach to Israeli political commentary.
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      Michael Freund is Founder and Chairman of Shavei Israel (www.shavei.org), which reaches out and assists "lost Jews" seeking to return to the Jewish people. He writes a syndicated column and feature stories for the Jerusalem Post. Previously, he served as Deputy Director of Communications & Policy Planning in the Israeli Prime Minister´s Office under former premier Benjamin Netanyahu. A native of New York, he holds an MBA in Finance from Columbia University and a BA from the Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs at Princeton University. He has lived in Israel for the past decade.

      Tishrei 12, 5767, 10/4/2006

      Europe's Unsolicited Advice


      You have got to hand it to Javier Solana, the European Union's foreign policy chief.

      He may be no friend of Israel, but he certainly can keep a straight face while saying the most ridiculous of things.

      And so it was that at a meeting today with Israeli Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni, Solana repeated the mantra that the Europeans have been reciting ad nauseum in recent years: Israel must abide by the so-called road map to peace.

      Now, Solana is no fool. He reads the newspapers. He surely knows that in the intervening years since the adoption of the road map, a few things have changed here in the Middle East. Israel withdrew unilaterally from Gush Katif and received terror in return, Hamas has come to power in the Palestinian Authority, and Israeli Cpl. Gilad Shalit remains in captivity somewhere in Gaza.

      So for Solana to declare that Israel must nonetheless fulfill its obligations under the road map only underlines once again just how unjust, and downright absurd, the European position on the Middle East truly is. Because essentially what Europe is saying to Israel is: we don't care if the Palestinians keep trying to kill you, just shut up and retreat.

      Sorry, Javier, but the days when Europe can force Jews to flee are over. This land belongs to us, and we have no intention of leaving – so start getting used to it. Or, better yet, take your unsolicited advice elsewhere.



      Tishrei 11, 5767, 10/3/2006

      Stop the Tyrant of Teheran


      Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad outdid himself once again this past Friday, when he declared before a public gathering that Israel would soon "disappear".

      Stepping up his previously heated rhetoric, the "tyrant of Teheran" went one step further, warning the US and the West to stop supporting the Jewish state and "to distance yourself from these criminals... This is an ultimatum. Don't complain tomorrow," he said.

      Ahmadinejadnazi_flagNot since Adolf Hitler has a head of state spoken so openly of his desire to wipe the Jewish people off the face of the earth.

      It is time we stop kidding ourselves, and start facing facts: war is coming to the Middle East, and Israel had better move quickly to pre-empt our enemies before it is too late.

      As I wrote in my column below from the Jerusalem Post, the sand in the hourglass is running out, and our foes are busy preparing for the seemingly inevitable confrontation that lies ahead.

      Are we?

      The Coming Middle East War

      By Michael Freund

      The warning signs are everywhere, yet no one wishes to see them. Israel's foes are gearing up for war, and it's time that we opened our eyes to the danger that confronts us.

      The conflict may be just weeks or even months away, or perhaps a bit longer. How it will start is anyone's guess, but make no mistake, a major outbreak of hostilities is almost certainly around the corner.

      If this sounds like scare-mongering or even an advanced case of paranoia to you, just take a glance at the newspapers from the past few weeks. If you read them with a discerning eye, you will see exactly what I mean.

      For whichever direction one chooses to look, be it north, south or east of us, trouble - major trouble - is brewing.

      In Lebanon, Hizbullah is busy rebuilding its expansive terrorist infrastructure after this summer's fighting with Israel. Under the protective shield of UN troops, the group has been welcoming large shipments of weapons from Iran and Syria, and fortifying its bunkers in advance of the next round of conflict.

      In a speech delivered last month in Beirut, on September 22, Hizbullah leader Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah asserted that his organization still has "more than 20,000 rockets" and that it had "recovered all its organizational and military capabilities."

      Even if we allow for an element of boasting and exaggeration, there are clear signs that Nasrallah is steadily engaged in rebuilding his forces.

      Indeed, this past Sunday, Brig.-Gen. Yossi Baidatz, head of the IDF intelligence directorate's research department, told the weekly Cabinet meeting that, "There is conclusive and decisive evidence" that Syria is rearming Hizbullah.

      "The weapons smuggling from Syria into Lebanon," Baidatz said, "is continuing with official Syrian involvement." He added that Damascus has kept its forces on a war footing, with their artillery and missiles deployed in forward battle positions.

      Along these lines, Syrian President Bashar Assad has made a series of public statements in recent weeks, speaking openly about the possibility of military conflict with Israel and his desire to retake the Golan Heights by force.

      In an interview with the Kuwaiti newspaper Al-Anba on October 6, Assad said that Damascus was ready for war with the Jewish state. Previously, he insisted that the Golan would be "liberated by Syrian arms," and warned Israel to "seek peace or face the threat of defeat."

      TURNING SOUTH toward Gaza, the situation is likewise disturbing. Palestinian terrorists continue to fire Kassam rockets into the Negev on a daily basis, hitting Israeli towns and communities such as Sderot and Nir Am.

      Since the start of the year, Hamas is said to have smuggled into Gaza over 20 tons of explosives, anti-aircraft and anti-tank missiles. According to media reports, Hamas has also assembled an armed military force consisting of 7,500 fighters, which is said to include specialized units such as snipers, missile batteries and anti-tank troops.

      As Yediot Aharonot military correspondent Alex Fishman recently put it, "The Palestinians are arming themselves to the teeth, building a military force, defensive systems and preparing Hizbullah-style surprises."

      Nor is Hamas hiding its intentions. In a statement issued on Monday, the group's Izzadin al-Kassam brigades declared that it has the "means and arms necessary to confront the Zionist enemy with all our force."

      Saying they are "totally ready to resist," Hamas added somewhat ominously that, "We have finished preparations to teach the Zionist enemy a lesson it will not forget."

      And then, of course, there is the threat from Teheran to our east, where the Iranian president speaks of wiping Israel off the map even as he continues to pursue his nuclear ambitions.

      If anyone thinks that Mr. Ahmadinejad is open to compromise, they should take a look at his latest ramblings. Speaking at a mosque in Teheran on Monday, the Iranian leader insisted that he had received a Divine message indicating that his country would prevail. "One day," he said, "I will be asked whether I have been in touch with someone who told me we would win, and I will respond: 'Yes, I have been in touch with God'."

      As if all this were not enough, there have been persistent reports in recent months about a growing al-Qaida presence in the territories, as the international terrorist group seeks to position itself for launching strikes against the Jewish state.

      And so, Israel now finds itself surrounded by an arc of hate stretching from Beirut and Damascus in the north, to Teheran in the east, and back to Gaza in the south. Along each chord of this arc, our foes are diligently arming themselves and preparing for battle, both verbally and in practice. It seems safe to assume that these coordinated efforts are no coincidence, and that they are all linked to the seemingly inevitable confrontation that is looming over the region regarding Iran's nuclear program.

      Just as Iran sought to send a message to Israel and the US this summer by provoking an outbreak of hostilities in Lebanon, so too Teheran now appears determined to lay the groundwork for a much greater, and far more ambitious, flare-up, one that would threaten to consume the entire region. The Iranians presumably view this as their trump card, thinking that it will give them the means of forestalling a possible US or Israeli attack on their nuclear facilities.

      As a result, they have been working to strengthen the extremists throughout the region, who share their desire to hit America and Israel. In all probability, they are merely waiting for the opportune moment with which to set in motion the next provocative act, which will be aimed at igniting the entire Middle East.

      HOW SHOULD Israel react to this growing threat? First, we must learn the lesson of this summer's Lebanon war, which was disastrous precisely because we sat back and allowed our enemies to build up their military infrastructure over time.

      Instead of making this same mistake once again, Israel should take whatever steps are necessary to interdict weapons shipments to the terrorists, seal off their supply routes, and hit hard at those who are sending them the weapons in the first place.

      Second, the government needs to begin seriously contemplating the possibility of launching preemptive and wide-ranging military strikes. Our foes are openly preparing for war, so why should we allow them the luxury to choose when it starts?

      Passivity and indecisiveness cost us dearly in the past, and especially in Lebanon this summer. We can not allow ourselves to play by the enemy's rules, or even by his schedule, should this scenario once again come to pass.

      I truly hope that I am wrong, and that diplomacy and common sense will somehow prevail. The last thing Israel needs right now is another painful conflict, and we should all pray to G-d for His mercy and intervention.

      But as in the past, our enemies may leave us with no other choice but to fight. This time around, let's just make sure we are ready for the challenge.



      Tishrei 10, 5767, 10/2/2006

      Getting Ready for the Next Gaza War


      If you haven't heard much about what's happening in Gaza lately, don't be fooled into thinking that all is quiet on Israel's southern front.

      Palestinian terrorists continue to fire Kassam rockets on a daily basis from Gaza into Israel, even if the media hardly bothers to report it. Just today, in fact, two rockets hit the Israeli town of Sderot, leaving one woman injured and seven others requiring treatment for shock.

      But even more worrisome is what's taking place behind the scenes and just below the surface. As an article in Ha'aretz makes clear, Hamas is busy preparing for nothing less than war with Israel.

      Hamas_terrorists_prepare_for_next_round_Citing Israeli military sources, the paper notes that, "Since the beginning of the year, more than 20 tons of explosives, anti-aircraft missiles and antitank missiles have been smuggled into Gaza."

      Furthermore, Hamas has been aiming to improve the weapons in its arsenal: "By increasing the range of its missiles, the deadly force of their warheads and above all, by using high-quality blast explosives, Hamas hopes to heighten the threat to the northern and western Negev from the direction of Gaza," the report says.

      "If Hamas succeeds in improving the rockets in its possession, it will be able to store them for months, as opposed to just days, as it does now. That would enable the organization to fire massive salvos at the Negev for days at a time during periods of escalation, as Hezbollah did in northern Israel during the second Lebanon war."

      And so, while our own political leaders hem and haw as to what to do, Hamas is taking advantage of Israel's indecisiveness and laying the groundwork for an ugly confrontation in the future.

      But instead of waiting for this to happen, instead of giving Hamas time to prepare, wouldn’t it make more sense for Israel to strike now?

      Must we repeat the mistakes that preceded this summer's Lebanon war, when Israel sat back and allowed Hizbullah to build up its army and its defensive positions in advance of the conflict?

      Is anyone in our leadership paying attention?



      Tishrei 9, 5767, 10/1/2006

      Here Comes Muslim Europe...


      The Muslim takeover of Europe is happening more quickly than people think.
      In my column below from the Jerusalem Post, I highlight the demographic decline of traditional Europe and contrast it with the rapid growth of the continent's Muslim population.
      EurabiaThis trend has far-reaching consequences for the US and Israel, and it is time that our decision-makers start taking it into account as they plan for the future.
      -------------

      The Jerusalem Post, January 10, 2007

      Say Goodbye to Europe

      By Michael Freund

      If you ever wanted to see Paris or Rome before you die, but haven't had a chance to do so, you might want to hurry. Soon enough, most of what we now think of as Western Europe will be transformed into a branch of the Muslim world, which is sure to make it an even less welcoming place for Americans, Israelis and for Jews.

      That, at least, is the unpleasant, yet entirely unavoidable conclusion to be drawn from Europe's headlong demographic drive toward oblivion.

      Think I'm exaggerating? Consider a few cold hard facts.

      According to a recent report by the Rand Corporation, "Across Europe, birth rates are falling and family sizes are shrinking. The total fertility rate is now less than two children per woman in every member nation in the European Union."

      Needless to say, demographers consider a birthrate of 2.1 children per family to be the replacement level at which a society's population size remains stable. Barring large-scale immigration, anything less means decline and dissolution.

      A research study published last year in the International Journal of Andrology found a similar trend, concluding that, "Fertility rates have fallen and are now below replacement level in all European Union (EU) Member States. In the 20-year period since 1982," it noted, "most EU Member State countries have had total fertility rates continuously below replacement level."

      At the bottom of the list are Spain, Italy and Greece, where birthrates hover around just 1.3 per couple, leading some forecasters to suggest, for example, that Italy's population could shrink by one-third by the middle of the century.

      Others, such as Germany's 1.37, the UK's 1.74 and Sweden's 1.75, aren't all much better.

      The figures are so bad that in many European countries, the total number of deaths each year has actually begun to exceed the number of births.

      Indeed, the Council of Europe's 2004 Demographic Yearbook warned that, "for Europe as a whole, more people died in 2003 than were born." In 1990, said the yearbook, "three countries - Germany, Bulgaria and Hungary - had negative natural growth for the first time. By 2002, it was negative in fifteen countries."

      LAST YEAR, after the publication of statistics revealing that 30 percent of German women have not had children, Germany's family minister, Ursula von der Leyen, caused a stir when she said that if her nation's birth rate did not turn around, the country would have to "turn out the light." And while Europeans may be busy everywhere but in the bedroom, the Muslim populations in their midst are proving far more expansive.

      As columnist Mark Steyn points out in his must-read new book, America Alone, "What's the Muslim population of Rotterdam? Forty percent. What's the most popular baby boy's name in Belgium? Mohammed. In Amsterdam? Mohammed. In Malmo, Sweden? Mohammed."

      Last month, the UK Daily Telegraph reported that, "Mohammed, and its most common alternative spelling Muhammad, are now more popular babies' names in England and Wales than George."

      This, said the paper, using typically British understatement, "reflects the diverse ethnic mix of the population."

      But that "mix," so to speak, is rapidly changing - and not in traditional Europe's favor.

      ISLAM, BY all accounts, is the fastest growing religion in Europe, spurred by immigration and high fertility rates. According to projections by the US federal government's National Intelligence Council, the continent's current Muslim population of 20 million will likely double by 2025.

      And as Bruce Bawer noted last year in While Europe Slept, "Already, in most of Western Europe, 16 to 20 percent of children are Muslims…within a couple of generations many [European] countries will have Muslim majorities."

      Not since September 8, 1683, when the Ottomans were threatening to breach the walls of Vienna, has Islam been so perilously close to seizing control over Western Europe.

      The implications of all this are far graver than we can even begin to imagine, and it is not just a matter of choosing new and more hospitable tourist destinations.

      An increasingly Islamified Europe will prove ever more hostile to Israel and America, and this trend will only intensify as the Muslim population there continues to grow.

      Even if European governments succeed in reversing the curve, which seems highly unlikely, it will be decades before it would begin to be felt. In the meantime, however, Muslim political power on the continent will develop and expand, and European leaders will be hard-pressed to ignore their demands.

      This makes it far less likely that Israel and the US can count on Europe - if they ever really could - at times of crisis in the decades ahead. Just pick an issue, from the war on terror to Palestinian statehood, and you'll see what I mean.

      For however unbalanced Europe's stance has been until now, it will likely only grow worse in the years to come.

      Europe as we know it is a thing of the past, and it is time for Israeli and American decision-makers to take this into account as they plan for the future. The face of Europe is changing rapidly, and with it the continent's social and political make-up.

      So if you really want to see the Eiffel Tower up close, you had best not delay. Before you know it, it might just turn into a minaret.



      Tishrei 9, 5767, 10/1/2006

      The Growing Al-Qaeda Threat to Israel


      If Osama Bin-Laden’s official representative in Iraq is to be believed, Al-Qaeda has now officially turned its sights on the Jewish state.

      In an audio tape posted on an Islamist website, Abu Musab al-Zarqawi claimed that 4 Katyusha rockets fired from southern Lebanon into northern Israel on December 27 were the work of the terrorist group and came at the instructions of its chieftain, bin Laden.

      “The rocket firing at the ancestors of monkeys and pigs from the south of Lebanon was only the start of a blessed in-depth strike against the Zionist enemy”, al-Zarqawi declared, adding that “All that was on the instructions of the sheikh of the mujahedeen, Osama bin Laden”.

      Osama_sucks_1 This comes just a few short weeks after UPI reported (December 7) that Al-Qaeda had forged an alliance with Hizbullah terrorists in Lebanon to coordinate anti-Israel attacks.

      The presence of Al-Qaeda in Lebanon is extremely significant, because it now means that the terror group has operatives in nearly all the countries surrounding Israel. Don’t forget that Al-Qaeda has carried out bombings in Amman, Jordan (in November 2004), and in the Egyptian-controlled Sinai (in October 2004) at Western and Israeli targets.

      Hence, as ominous as it sounds, Al-Qaeda has the ability to target Israel from the west, the east and the north. And, as Israel’s head of Military Intelligence confirmed at the end of September, Osama bin-Laden’s thugs established a presence in Gaza as well in the wake of the Israeli retreat, giving them still another launching pad for attacks against the Jewish state.

      All this underlines just how much Israel is on the front-lines of the global war on terror – and how essential it is that we stand firm and confront it. For some time now, I have been reporting on this blog about the growing threat posed by Al-Qaeda to Israel, particularly in light of the Gaza withdrawal and the vacuum it created in the area. It is crucial that we raise awareness about this issue, both in Israel and the West, and that we inform our communities, elected representatives and leaders about it.

      I don't want to sound like an alarmist, but Al-Qaeda’s increased presence in the region clearly does not bode well for the future. It is time for Israel’s decision-makers to take this threat seriously, and to start taking concrete action to forestall a Middle Eastern 9/11 – before it is too late.

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