Now and then I like to visit some Palestinians in El-Khader on the West Bank to discuss current events. Barack Obama's speech in Cairo was such an event. Here's the conversation I had with Ashraf and Raed, who own a
His business could be closed pretty soon.
building materials shop in El-Khader, just outside the Jewish settlement of Efrat.

I entered Ashraf's shop with the question if he had heard the news that his business could be closed pretty soon. For a moment I noticed shock in the way he gazed at me, but when I said that I was talking about Obama's remarks regarding the freeze in settlement building, he realized I was joking.

Yeah, he had seen the speech on the TV, but was not too impressed. Obama does not understand the situation and would commit suicide within a year, he said. Now it was my turn to gaze at him with shock, but soon I realized he was talking about political suicide.

I asked them why they were not impressed. "Two states for two peoples" meant that there would be a state for them, no? Why should it spell the end for Obama?

"It is not that simple," said Ashraf, who declared that he does not want a Palestinian state under the rule of the Palestinian Authority or Hamas. So I asked him what he thought should happen, but he did not give a direct answer. Instead, he said that he just wanted to go on vacation to Eilat whenever he felt like it. (Last year he went to Eilat, he told me, to my surprise. I did not know such a thing was possible.)

"What do you mean by that?" I asked him. But again he did not give a direct answer; instead, he started to talk about Abdallah the king of Jordan.

Some Israelis think that the solution would be a confederation between the PA and Jordan, he said. So I asked him his opinion about this plan, but Raed said that Abdallah vehemently opposes the idea. For them, too, it is out of the question to accept it.

So I repeated my question: "Why not a state of your own?" This time the answer was that they would only accept a state on condition that the PA would be dismantled and removed from the West Bank. I responded by pointing to the opinion of the international community that there should be a Palestinian state by all means. They were not impressed and told me that they preferred the current situation with a greater freedom of movement in Israel proper.

That was not the first time I heard this kind of opinion from Palestinians. Last year I heard the same from a group of Palestinian technicians working in a Jewish-Arab garage in Gush Etzion. A Palestinian contractor from Hebron went even further when he stated that the real misery had started when Yasser Arafat established the PA.

I asked Ashraf and Raed what they thought of Obama's demand to stop the building in the settlements completely. They responded with disdain; it was all rubbish, according to them. I thought that there could be an element of personal interest in this rejection, because of their shop's dependency on the construction in the nearby settlements. However, it is true that a halt to building in the settlements would be a disaster for the Palestinian building industry. Tens of thousands of Palestinians depend for their livelihood on the settlements. They not only build the settlements, but deliver all sorts of goods and services to the settlers.

On my way to Jerusalem, I rethought our conversation and came to the conclusion that politicians from the US
There will be no progress as long as the current political leadership is around, be it Fatah or Hamas.
and Europe who are thinking of launching a new peace initiative should first and foremost spend time doing a fact-finding investigation in the area.

Tony Blair, the Quartet envoy for the PA and Israel, is a good example of somebody whose opinions evolved through the experience of fact-finding in the area on a regular basis. He is involved in the issues of daily life on the West Bank and came to the conclusion that building a state is more than drawing the lines of borders. Blair, in fact, supports the opinion of the current Israeli government that state building should begin with building an economy and institutions, and not with pursuing another final status agreement.

Rather than building an economy and institutions, Palestinians are in need of different education and different leadership. In fact, the Palestinians to whom I speak on a regular basis are telling me that there will be no progress as long as the current political leadership is around, be it Fatah or Hamas.

Obama and other politicians should heed these Palestinian warnings - and the opinion of Tony Blair.