The assumption that an Israeli giveaway of the Golan Heights would pacify Syria, dismantle the Syria-Iran axis and moderate the Middle East is intriguing. But is it consistent with Middle East reality?
A Golan Heights giveaway would feed Syrian strategic goals.

Syria's alliance with Iran has been strategic and long-term, not tactical and short-term. It constitutes the most critical element in Damascus' national security policy, internally and externally, regionally and globally, financially and commercially, militarily and diplomatically. Unlike the tactical nature of the Golan Heights, the Syria-Iran axis relates directly to the very survival of the Ba'ath regime in Damascus.

Damascus' top national security interests are bolstered by its ties with Shiite Iran, which shares most of Damascus' priorities:

a) buttressing the domestic power base of the minority Alawite Ba'ath regime, which is oppressing the Sunni majority;

b) enhancing Syria's posture in Lebanon, which is perceived as western Greater Syria;

c) expanding their collaborative anti-US terrorism in Iraq and Afghanistan, aiming also to dislodge US presence in the Persian Gulf;

d) supporting Syria in its conflict with Turkey over the future of the Hatay/Iskandrun region (claimed by Syria) and over the waters of the Euphrates River;

e) advancing Syrian inter-Arab leadership aspirations, especially versus its historical rival, Iraq;

f) facilitating a potential Syrian control of Jordan, which it perceives as southern Greater Syria;

g) Strengthening Syrian global clout vis a vis Russia, the US, China and Western Europe;

h) Improving Syria's financial position and providing credit for some of its military acquisitions;

i) Supplying Syria advanced military systems and dual-use technologies; and

j) Expanding and upgrading Damascus' terrorist network.

Thus, Damascus' top priorities are irrelevant to the Arab-Israeli Conflict - the Palestinian issue, the settlements policy, Israel's overall policy, a Golan Heights giveaway or Israel's existence.

A Syria-Iran strategic cooperation agreement was concluded on July 19, 2007, as a follow-up to a March 10, 2007, protocol on defense cooperation. The deal includes $1 billion in Iranian aid to acquire 400 T-72 Russian tanks, 18 Mig-31s, 8 Sukhoi bombers and Mi-8 helicopters; Iranian plants to be built in Syria for the production of medium-range missiles and missile launchers; supply of Iranian surface-to-surface missiles, tanks and armored personnel carriers; training of Syrian military personnel in Iran; as well as the transfer of Iranian nuclear and chemical technologies (the reliable Al-Sharq Al-Awsat daily, London, July 21, 2007).
Damascus' top priorities are irrelevant to the Arab-Israeli Conflict.

Another Syria-Iran strategic cooperation agreement was concluded in June 2006, in the footsteps of the February 2006 eighth session of the Higher Iran-Syria Joint Commission. The 2006 deal included Iranian funding of Syrian military purchases from Russia, China and Ukraine; training of Syrian navy personnel in Iran; and Iranian military aid to Hizbullah via Syria. (Please see the Turkish Weekly, Aug. 15, 2007, for more.)

High-level Syria-Iran meetings have recently taken place to address the areas of military, intelligence, ideology, diplomacy, espionage, dual-use technology, science, industry, infrastructures, agriculture, etc.

A Golan Heights giveaway would feed Syrian strategic goals, enhancing Syria's regional profile. It would enable Damascus to redeploy a few armored mechanized divisions away from the Golan to the Jordanian and Turkish frontier, thus undermining vital US interests.

Dismantling the strategic Damasus-Tehran axis would require Syria to ignore its top national security priorities, threatening the survival of the Ba'ath regime. It would require Syria to stop being Syria.