Binyamin Netanyahu beat Silvan Shalom for the head of the rump Likud, the party left over after the Sharon people bolted and joined the Peres people in co-creating Kadima, yet another party of Oslo appeasement and Israeli self-abasement.



Netanyahu's victory over Silvan Shalom was not spectacular, and Moshe Feiglin came in at a respectable 12.4% for third place. As prime minister, Netanyahu was as Chamberlainian as Shimon Peres and turned Hebron over to the savages. He has been talking hawkishly in recent months, but he talked hawkishly before he was elected prime minister in the 1990s, so such talk should be regarded with acute skepticism. To Netanyahu's credit, while he did nothing at all to reform the economy as prime minister in the '90s, he was surprisingly brave and energetic in seeking reforms as the recent finance minister under Ariel Sharon.



At this point, there are three contenders for prime minister. Each of them has a track record of endorsing Oslo appeasement, Israeli capitulation and Israeli self-abasement. Having noted this, there are nevertheless significant differences among the three, and the results of the next election do matter, although they will not stop Oslo no matter how they turn out.



First of all, unless he has more health problems, Sharon will win.



Thus, the best result that can be hoped for in the next national election is for Amir Peretz to come in third, behind Netanyahu and the Likud. That is the closest thing to a victory that Israelis can hope for at this point. That would spell an end to Peretz's career and probably also an end to the Labor party - an end well deserved.



Peretz is a demagogue who would destroy Israel economically in his attempt to restore Third World economic conditions and Bolshevik economic policies. Peretz is so incompetent, and just plain ignorant, that he would place Israel in imminent danger should any crisis develop while he were prime minister. Even worse, he might ask "Red" Shelly Yechimovich or Avishay Braverman for advice.



Sharon would continue with his usual policies as the next prime minister. The biggest existential danger to Israel from this, other than the continuation of those policies themselves, would be having Ehud Olmert as Number Two (I use the term "Number Two" in all of its many Austin Powers-like meanings). Olmert is a clear and present danger, and would be the likely successor should Sharon be forced to resign due to health or death.



In addition, nearly every corrupt criminal who was in the previous Likud is now a "leader" in Kadima. So, law and order would not be the strong suit of a new Sharon government.



Likud is the most likely coalition partner of Kadima and, as such, it would probably put Netanyahu back in the finance ministry, which is a somewhat good reason for people to vote for Likud. The Judea, Samaria and Gaza Council endorsed Netanyahu in the primaries, over Feiglin. Feiglin still has problems being taken seriously by the general public, his two main weaknesses continuing to be the presence of Kahanists at his side and his image as a theocrat. Most Israelis, including most Likud members, seem to think these problems signal general shallowness.



The right-wing opposition is, as usual, confused and incompetent. At the moment, some people are trying to build an opposition coalition between the National Union, the only truly anti-Oslo party, and the National Religious Party (NRP). The NRP pays some lip service to opposing Oslo appeasement, but, in reality, it gladly would move Israel back to its 1949 borders in exchange for some subsidies for its schools and yeshivas.



A hopeful sign is that Meretz, with Yossi Beilin at its helm, is lagging in the polls, what with the Peres Left following its leader into Kadima. Reduction of Meretz to the endangered species list would, of course, be a great benefit, deserving of a "hatov vehameitiv" blessing.