There is an American sports concept called 'money time'. It relates to the last few minutes of the game when the outcome will be truly determined, when the playing becomes most serious. There are those who think that we are now entering 'money time' in relation to the Iranian nuclear threat issue.
The Iranians and the Europeans in the last few days have both said that their negotiation has not led to an agreement on the question of the enrichment of uranium by Iran. The Europeans, representing the IAEA, are looking for a long- term suspension of such enrichment. Iran insists on its right to have an enrichment program, a program that would enable it to make nuclear weapons. Iran's head negotiator Hassan Rowhani has said that Iran may shortly begin enriching uranium again in its facility at Esfahan. This would be done in defiance of the European powers and the United States.
At the same time as this cat-and- mouse negotiation is underway ,there has been what may well be a dramatic new development in the dimension of the Iranian threat. Joseph Farah, director of WorldNetDaily, in its intelligence publication G2, recently wrote as follows: "Iran is not only covertly developing nuclear weapons, it is already testing ballistic missiles specifically designed to destroy America's technical infrastructure, effectively neutralizing the world's lone superpower, say US intelligence sources, top scientists and Western missile industry experts."
The radical Shiite regime has conducted successful tests to determine if its Shahab-3 ballistic missiles, capable of carrying a nuclear warhead, can be detonated by a remote-control device while still in high-altitude flight.
Scientists, including President Reagan's top science adviser, William R. Graham, say there is no other explanation for such tests than preparation for the deployment of Electromagnetic Pulse weapons ? even one of which could knock out America's critical electrical and technological infrastructure, effectively sending the continental US back to the 19th century, with a recovery time of months or years. Iran will have that capability ? at least theoretically ? as soon as it has one nuclear bomb ready to arm such a missile. North Korea, a strategic ally of Iran, already boasts such capability."
In other words, Iran may soon have the capability of constituting an existential threat not only to Israel, but to the United States. Author Jerome Corsi, whose recent book Atomic Iran considers the Iranian nuclear program in depth, claims that the best intelligence available is putting a June 2005 date on the time of Iran's achieving nuclear capability. This of course leaves almost no time, and suggests that the United States and its allies should be acting almost immediately. However Corsi's estimate is contradicted by that of another important analyst: veteran disarmament expert Michael Eisner believes it will be three to five years before Iran can attain a weapon by enrichment of uranium. He gives an eighteen-month figure for Iran's attaining a weapon once facility at Bushehr begin operating. He alternatively suggests that should Iran purchase fissile material from a foreign power, say North Korea or Pakistan, it could go nuclear almost immediately, provided it has the expertise and equipment to do so.
In any case, Israel can perhaps take some small consolation in the fact that the Iranian problem is not considered ours alone, but is recognized as a problem for the world as a whole.
As to recent developments in Israel in relation to Iran, the visit of Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin brought verbal assurances that the Russians would not allow Iran to go nuclear. However, these promises are empty in two ways. First, the Russians continue to build the nuclear plant at Bushehr. Secondly, the Russians have no control whatsoever of a wide variety of Iran programs.
Israel however has chosen to try to downplay the possibility of any pre-emptive attack on Iran. Defense Minister Mofaz has said that Israel has no intention of making such an attack. Prime Minister Sharon in his most recent American visit spoke of the problem as one for the West as a whole, and not one Israel is to take the lead in.
The United States, too, led by Condeleeza Rice has been speaking very softly about Iran. It has been talking about cooperating with the Europeans, the IAEA. All this may reflect a desire to preserve the 'surprise factor' should an attack be judged necessary. But it may also reflect Israeli and US conviction that they have no real military option against Iran, and must, as Eisner suggests, rely more on deterrence than anything else.
Iran, for its part, is more defiant than ever. Its increasing revenues from the high-price of oil provide it with excess funds for further investment in its WMD programs. Its increasing contacts with oil- hungry China and India solidify its position diplomatically. The American difficulties in Iraq provide it with a source of hope regarding an eventual Shiite 'superstate', including Iran, Iraq and Lebanon. Its spokesmen throughout the world, foreign ministry spokesman Asefi, arms negotiator Rohani, Defense Minister Shamkahni present a united front in insisting on Iran's right to enrich uranium.
And no one knows exactly what Iran is doing in all the hidden facilities for nuclear development that it has been building. Iran, that is, seems to taking the time while negotiations are going on, or stalling, to continue with its quest for nuclear weapons.
The situation, it seems, cannot get much worse before a critical transformation is made and Iran becomes a nuclear power. Should that happen, all the world will be more endangered. And we in Israel, considering Iran's fanatical hostility to us, the most endangered of all.
The Iranians and the Europeans in the last few days have both said that their negotiation has not led to an agreement on the question of the enrichment of uranium by Iran. The Europeans, representing the IAEA, are looking for a long- term suspension of such enrichment. Iran insists on its right to have an enrichment program, a program that would enable it to make nuclear weapons. Iran's head negotiator Hassan Rowhani has said that Iran may shortly begin enriching uranium again in its facility at Esfahan. This would be done in defiance of the European powers and the United States.
At the same time as this cat-and- mouse negotiation is underway ,there has been what may well be a dramatic new development in the dimension of the Iranian threat. Joseph Farah, director of WorldNetDaily, in its intelligence publication G2, recently wrote as follows: "Iran is not only covertly developing nuclear weapons, it is already testing ballistic missiles specifically designed to destroy America's technical infrastructure, effectively neutralizing the world's lone superpower, say US intelligence sources, top scientists and Western missile industry experts."
The radical Shiite regime has conducted successful tests to determine if its Shahab-3 ballistic missiles, capable of carrying a nuclear warhead, can be detonated by a remote-control device while still in high-altitude flight.
Scientists, including President Reagan's top science adviser, William R. Graham, say there is no other explanation for such tests than preparation for the deployment of Electromagnetic Pulse weapons ? even one of which could knock out America's critical electrical and technological infrastructure, effectively sending the continental US back to the 19th century, with a recovery time of months or years. Iran will have that capability ? at least theoretically ? as soon as it has one nuclear bomb ready to arm such a missile. North Korea, a strategic ally of Iran, already boasts such capability."
In other words, Iran may soon have the capability of constituting an existential threat not only to Israel, but to the United States. Author Jerome Corsi, whose recent book Atomic Iran considers the Iranian nuclear program in depth, claims that the best intelligence available is putting a June 2005 date on the time of Iran's achieving nuclear capability. This of course leaves almost no time, and suggests that the United States and its allies should be acting almost immediately. However Corsi's estimate is contradicted by that of another important analyst: veteran disarmament expert Michael Eisner believes it will be three to five years before Iran can attain a weapon by enrichment of uranium. He gives an eighteen-month figure for Iran's attaining a weapon once facility at Bushehr begin operating. He alternatively suggests that should Iran purchase fissile material from a foreign power, say North Korea or Pakistan, it could go nuclear almost immediately, provided it has the expertise and equipment to do so.
In any case, Israel can perhaps take some small consolation in the fact that the Iranian problem is not considered ours alone, but is recognized as a problem for the world as a whole.
As to recent developments in Israel in relation to Iran, the visit of Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin brought verbal assurances that the Russians would not allow Iran to go nuclear. However, these promises are empty in two ways. First, the Russians continue to build the nuclear plant at Bushehr. Secondly, the Russians have no control whatsoever of a wide variety of Iran programs.
Israel however has chosen to try to downplay the possibility of any pre-emptive attack on Iran. Defense Minister Mofaz has said that Israel has no intention of making such an attack. Prime Minister Sharon in his most recent American visit spoke of the problem as one for the West as a whole, and not one Israel is to take the lead in.
The United States, too, led by Condeleeza Rice has been speaking very softly about Iran. It has been talking about cooperating with the Europeans, the IAEA. All this may reflect a desire to preserve the 'surprise factor' should an attack be judged necessary. But it may also reflect Israeli and US conviction that they have no real military option against Iran, and must, as Eisner suggests, rely more on deterrence than anything else.
Iran, for its part, is more defiant than ever. Its increasing revenues from the high-price of oil provide it with excess funds for further investment in its WMD programs. Its increasing contacts with oil- hungry China and India solidify its position diplomatically. The American difficulties in Iraq provide it with a source of hope regarding an eventual Shiite 'superstate', including Iran, Iraq and Lebanon. Its spokesmen throughout the world, foreign ministry spokesman Asefi, arms negotiator Rohani, Defense Minister Shamkahni present a united front in insisting on Iran's right to enrich uranium.
And no one knows exactly what Iran is doing in all the hidden facilities for nuclear development that it has been building. Iran, that is, seems to taking the time while negotiations are going on, or stalling, to continue with its quest for nuclear weapons.
The situation, it seems, cannot get much worse before a critical transformation is made and Iran becomes a nuclear power. Should that happen, all the world will be more endangered. And we in Israel, considering Iran's fanatical hostility to us, the most endangered of all.