On February 19, 2005, Russian leader Vladimir Putin came to the defense of Iran, and said that it is not pursuing the development of nuclear weapons. This comes as he is about to sign an agreement with Iran in which the Islamic state promises to return to Russia all the spent fuel from the reactor at Bushehr. This reactor, being built now by the Russians, may go on-line as early as the end of 2005. The spent fuel from such a reactor may be used for making nuclear weapons. Apparently, Putin wants us to believe that Iran's signing an agreement with Russia to return spent fuel guarantees that it will reliably do so. Iran, of course, has a record of dishonoring international commitments without the slightest hesitation or scruple.
At the same time as he is about to sign this deal, Putin has agreed to supply Syria a new missile defense system that would enhance the danger to Israel. And this, just as Iran and Syria have proclaimed together that should one of them be attacked, the other will come to its aid.
This last hasty proclamation came after the US accusation that Syria was responsible for the murder of former Lebanese prime minister Rafik Harari in Beirut.
Iran also received encouragement from another front on February 18, 2005, when IAEA director Mohammed El-Baradei said that he is confident Iran is not working to build nuclear weapons. This proclamation was made even though IAEA inspectors have not been allowed inside key Iranian nuclear facilities and the IAEA does not know even the whereabouts of many Iranian nuclear plants.
Iran has also been bolstered, in a way, by the North Korean declaration that it has nuclear weapons and that no one is going to stop it from having them. As the US and Japan urge North Korea to negotiate, Iran sees that defiance of the great powers is possible.
In another development, this one more encouraging from an Israeli point of view, President George Bush has said that if he were the prime minister of Israel, he would be extremely concerned about Iranian hostility. His remarks are generally taken to be an indication that he would support Israel if it decided to take some kind of action against Iran.
At the same time, in the last few weeks, both new American Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and Israeli Defense Minister Sha'ul Mofaz have said that their countries have no intention to take military deterrent action against Iran in the near future. President Bush has said, too, that the US prefers a diplomatic solution to the Iranian problem. And it appears that he is giving the IAEA and the Europeans more time to achieve this. Meanwhile, the Iranians continue with their work on their missile systems and weapons production in secret and not-so-secret sites.
Israeli Foreign Minister Silvan Shalom has said that Iran will have a nuclear capability sometime late in 2005. This estimate, however, was given without any accompanying evidence. It can be added to a long list of estimates of when Iran would go nuclear. All this, as if to confirm what most intelligence experts say; i.e., that no one outside Iran has good enough information about the Iranian nuclear program to tell exactly how far Iran has come. One line of thought is that Iran already has nuclear weapons. That would mean that when Iranian Defense Minister Shamkhani recently threatened the US and Israel with retaliation of the most horrible kind, should Iran be attacked, he was referring to a nuclear capability Iran already has.
The Iranians - with increased energy revenues, backing from Russia and China, and a clear sense that their case is not going to be sent to the UN Security Council for possible sanctions against them - seem more confident and defiant than ever. According to the Tehran Times, Iran's leaders are not at all discouraged by the election results in Iraq, as they are bringing into power a Shiite regime, leaving out of the equation the Sunni Iraqis who have long been the Persians' enemy.
Another aspect of the Iranian situation vis-a-vis Israel is their increasing military role in Gaza, Judea and Samaria. Iran is the principal supporter of Hizbullah, which they have supplied with the missiles that now have the northern third of Israel in their range. The Iranians are also playing a political role in urging resistance to even a temporary Palestinian halt of violence against Israel.
As for the covert intelligence action that the US and possibly Israel are undertaking in Iran, there have been reports of US drones investigating nuclear sites in Iran. There was also the report in the New Yorker by Seymour Hersh claiming that US intelligence teams are also investigating Iranian nuclear sites. But the veteran military correspondent Al J. Venter, in his new book on the Iranian nuclear threat, indicates that the level of Western intelligence on Iran is by no means comprehensive. This is a possible cause for delaying deterrent action now and in the future.
As it is now, it is difficult to make any realistic assessment of when and if such deterrent action may occur. Most observers believe that it is Iran's ally Syria that the United States is most intent on moving against next - especially as the Americans believe the command structure for insurgent action in Iraq is located in Syria.
Iran, however, continues to be the major danger not only to Israel, to the American forces in the Middle East, and to the Persian Gulf region, but to the peace and freedom of the world as a whole. While there are many signs that this danger is more and more understood in the United States, and to a far lesser degree in Europe, no one yet has done anything real to halt the Islamic Revolutionary state from carrying out its program for becoming the dominant regional, and eventually worldwide, power.
At the same time as he is about to sign this deal, Putin has agreed to supply Syria a new missile defense system that would enhance the danger to Israel. And this, just as Iran and Syria have proclaimed together that should one of them be attacked, the other will come to its aid.
This last hasty proclamation came after the US accusation that Syria was responsible for the murder of former Lebanese prime minister Rafik Harari in Beirut.
Iran also received encouragement from another front on February 18, 2005, when IAEA director Mohammed El-Baradei said that he is confident Iran is not working to build nuclear weapons. This proclamation was made even though IAEA inspectors have not been allowed inside key Iranian nuclear facilities and the IAEA does not know even the whereabouts of many Iranian nuclear plants.
Iran has also been bolstered, in a way, by the North Korean declaration that it has nuclear weapons and that no one is going to stop it from having them. As the US and Japan urge North Korea to negotiate, Iran sees that defiance of the great powers is possible.
In another development, this one more encouraging from an Israeli point of view, President George Bush has said that if he were the prime minister of Israel, he would be extremely concerned about Iranian hostility. His remarks are generally taken to be an indication that he would support Israel if it decided to take some kind of action against Iran.
At the same time, in the last few weeks, both new American Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and Israeli Defense Minister Sha'ul Mofaz have said that their countries have no intention to take military deterrent action against Iran in the near future. President Bush has said, too, that the US prefers a diplomatic solution to the Iranian problem. And it appears that he is giving the IAEA and the Europeans more time to achieve this. Meanwhile, the Iranians continue with their work on their missile systems and weapons production in secret and not-so-secret sites.
Israeli Foreign Minister Silvan Shalom has said that Iran will have a nuclear capability sometime late in 2005. This estimate, however, was given without any accompanying evidence. It can be added to a long list of estimates of when Iran would go nuclear. All this, as if to confirm what most intelligence experts say; i.e., that no one outside Iran has good enough information about the Iranian nuclear program to tell exactly how far Iran has come. One line of thought is that Iran already has nuclear weapons. That would mean that when Iranian Defense Minister Shamkhani recently threatened the US and Israel with retaliation of the most horrible kind, should Iran be attacked, he was referring to a nuclear capability Iran already has.
The Iranians - with increased energy revenues, backing from Russia and China, and a clear sense that their case is not going to be sent to the UN Security Council for possible sanctions against them - seem more confident and defiant than ever. According to the Tehran Times, Iran's leaders are not at all discouraged by the election results in Iraq, as they are bringing into power a Shiite regime, leaving out of the equation the Sunni Iraqis who have long been the Persians' enemy.
Another aspect of the Iranian situation vis-a-vis Israel is their increasing military role in Gaza, Judea and Samaria. Iran is the principal supporter of Hizbullah, which they have supplied with the missiles that now have the northern third of Israel in their range. The Iranians are also playing a political role in urging resistance to even a temporary Palestinian halt of violence against Israel.
As for the covert intelligence action that the US and possibly Israel are undertaking in Iran, there have been reports of US drones investigating nuclear sites in Iran. There was also the report in the New Yorker by Seymour Hersh claiming that US intelligence teams are also investigating Iranian nuclear sites. But the veteran military correspondent Al J. Venter, in his new book on the Iranian nuclear threat, indicates that the level of Western intelligence on Iran is by no means comprehensive. This is a possible cause for delaying deterrent action now and in the future.
As it is now, it is difficult to make any realistic assessment of when and if such deterrent action may occur. Most observers believe that it is Iran's ally Syria that the United States is most intent on moving against next - especially as the Americans believe the command structure for insurgent action in Iraq is located in Syria.
Iran, however, continues to be the major danger not only to Israel, to the American forces in the Middle East, and to the Persian Gulf region, but to the peace and freedom of the world as a whole. While there are many signs that this danger is more and more understood in the United States, and to a far lesser degree in Europe, no one yet has done anything real to halt the Islamic Revolutionary state from carrying out its program for becoming the dominant regional, and eventually worldwide, power.