Today, November 22, there has been a report that Iran has suspended its enrichment of nuclear fuel. This is clearly a propaganda step aimed at thwarting any US-initiated action against Iran in the Security Council. It is Iran doing its side in the 'deal' with Great Britain, Germany and France, which would have Iran indefinitely suspend its enrichment program while receiving aid, including nuclear technology, from the Europeans. It is a wise tactical measure on the part of Iran, which in any case is covered against Security Council action through a promised veto by its increasingly powerful ally, China.
Iran, while pretending at suspending its uranium enrichment, is, according to Iranian dissidents, continuing to enrich uranium at secret sites. According to Israeli intelligence, Iran has two kinds of secret sites: those it has told the West about and those it has not. Debkafile estimates that Iran now has three-hundred and fifty nuclear sites that would have to be targeted if its nuclear program were to be halted completely. Debkafile claims that because of the great distance and the difficult route, Israeli planes would not be able to make these strikes effectively. It suggests that the only real military option is in the hands of the United States.
President Bush has repeatedly said that Iran would not be allowed to obtain nuclear weapons. The US has also recently suggested it might begin targeting Iranian leaders. But the consensus seems to be that for the US to effectively disable Iran's nuclear program it would have to make a ground invasion of Iran. Given the present difficulties that the US is having in Iraq, and the limitations on its forces, it seems extremely unlikely that the US will go any time soon for such an option.
On November 21, there was a report in the Jerusalem Post quoting Israeli intelligence sources saying that Iran would have a deliverable nuclear weapon in two years. This would seem to give the US and Israel a certain extra amount of time. But it is not clear that this report is accurate, as there have been many different estimates, including some suggesting that by this time Iran already has deliverable nuclear weapons.
Iran's strategic location in the Persian Gulf, its capacity to intimidate smaller neighbors, and the fact that it is one of the world's largest producers of oil also make a strike against its nuclear facilities problematic. The economic consequences of a strike against Iran, some believe, might be disastrous to the world economy.
There are, therefore, many reasons the Iranians might believe that their gamble is going to pay off, and they are going to get away with it. They are going to make the bluff temporary suspension gesture while continuing with their secret programs. They are going to continue improving their missile range and accuracy while adapting them for nuclear use. They are going to, under the world's eyes and against the promises their own leaders have repeatedly made (including those in which they claim that WMD are against all principles of Islam and were opposed by Ayatollah Khomeini), attain a considerable nuclear capability.
Again, most experts believe that Iranian targets are too numerous, too widely dispersed, too deeply bunkered underground and, in some cases, too unknown to be completely eliminated. There are experts who argue that attacks against the major sites in Bushehr, Natanz, Arak and Esfehan would considerably delay the Iranian nuclear program and so make a lot of sense. It is clear that the United States does have, as it is so close to Iran in Iraq, a real military option. Again, it is not clear that Israel, without full cooperation of the United States, has such an option.
What is more than clear is that the Iranians are determined to attain the nuclear option, that they are deceiving the Europeans, that the Europeans perhaps want to be deceived (at least this may be true for the French), in order to undermine the Americans, that Iran is greatly bolstered by having the China option, that an Iranian nuclear capacity is the greatest danger that Israel now faces. And that the stopping of Iran from becoming a nuclear power should be a first priority of the free world, not only in words but in deeds.
Iran, while pretending at suspending its uranium enrichment, is, according to Iranian dissidents, continuing to enrich uranium at secret sites. According to Israeli intelligence, Iran has two kinds of secret sites: those it has told the West about and those it has not. Debkafile estimates that Iran now has three-hundred and fifty nuclear sites that would have to be targeted if its nuclear program were to be halted completely. Debkafile claims that because of the great distance and the difficult route, Israeli planes would not be able to make these strikes effectively. It suggests that the only real military option is in the hands of the United States.
President Bush has repeatedly said that Iran would not be allowed to obtain nuclear weapons. The US has also recently suggested it might begin targeting Iranian leaders. But the consensus seems to be that for the US to effectively disable Iran's nuclear program it would have to make a ground invasion of Iran. Given the present difficulties that the US is having in Iraq, and the limitations on its forces, it seems extremely unlikely that the US will go any time soon for such an option.
On November 21, there was a report in the Jerusalem Post quoting Israeli intelligence sources saying that Iran would have a deliverable nuclear weapon in two years. This would seem to give the US and Israel a certain extra amount of time. But it is not clear that this report is accurate, as there have been many different estimates, including some suggesting that by this time Iran already has deliverable nuclear weapons.
Iran's strategic location in the Persian Gulf, its capacity to intimidate smaller neighbors, and the fact that it is one of the world's largest producers of oil also make a strike against its nuclear facilities problematic. The economic consequences of a strike against Iran, some believe, might be disastrous to the world economy.
There are, therefore, many reasons the Iranians might believe that their gamble is going to pay off, and they are going to get away with it. They are going to make the bluff temporary suspension gesture while continuing with their secret programs. They are going to continue improving their missile range and accuracy while adapting them for nuclear use. They are going to, under the world's eyes and against the promises their own leaders have repeatedly made (including those in which they claim that WMD are against all principles of Islam and were opposed by Ayatollah Khomeini), attain a considerable nuclear capability.
Again, most experts believe that Iranian targets are too numerous, too widely dispersed, too deeply bunkered underground and, in some cases, too unknown to be completely eliminated. There are experts who argue that attacks against the major sites in Bushehr, Natanz, Arak and Esfehan would considerably delay the Iranian nuclear program and so make a lot of sense. It is clear that the United States does have, as it is so close to Iran in Iraq, a real military option. Again, it is not clear that Israel, without full cooperation of the United States, has such an option.
What is more than clear is that the Iranians are determined to attain the nuclear option, that they are deceiving the Europeans, that the Europeans perhaps want to be deceived (at least this may be true for the French), in order to undermine the Americans, that Iran is greatly bolstered by having the China option, that an Iranian nuclear capacity is the greatest danger that Israel now faces. And that the stopping of Iran from becoming a nuclear power should be a first priority of the free world, not only in words but in deeds.