In an opinion piece written on August 25, 2022, titled "Are Israel’s enemies becoming more jihadist?" I warned of a significant shift in the nature of the threat facing Israel, particularly from groups like Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ). I predicted that the next wave of attacks on Israel would be distinct, more brutal, and inspired by the jihadist tactics that had emerged in other parts of the world, especially those seen in ISIS's rise. What we saw on October 7, 2023—the largest and deadliest assault on Israel in decades—was not just another chapter in the ongoing Israel-Palestine conflict, but a confirmation of the trends I outlined in my 2022 article.
For years, Israel has dealt with Hamas and PIJ, organizations whose ideological foundation is rooted in violent jihad and resistance against the Israeli state. However, these groups have evolved. While they were once seen as local nationalist movements with a focus on regional struggles, they have increasingly been influenced by global jihadist ideologies, particularly those of ISIS. This shift, as I noted, had profound implications for Israel’s security and its intelligence services.
In my 2022 article, I highlighted the growing influence of ISIS-style tactics within Palestinian armed groups. I pointed to several lone-wolf attacks inside Israel, many of which were inspired by ISIS and its apocalyptic vision of a global caliphate. At the time, these were seen as isolated incidents, but the trend was unmistakable. These attacks demonstrated that some of Israel's traditional enemies, who had once framed their struggle as part of a national liberation movement, were now increasingly adopting a jihadist outlook—a development that would pose significant challenges for Israel moving forward.
The October 7th attacks were a brutal manifestation of this shift. The Hamas-led assault, involving a combination of gunmen infiltrating Israel by land, sea, and air, targeted civilians in unprecedented ways. The scale and coordination of the attack were unprecedented, but so too was the ideology behind it. This was not merely a military operation aimed at military targets, but a mass casualty event designed to cause maximum civilian suffering—reminiscent of the terror tactics employed by ISIS in places like Paris and Brussels.
In the article, I discussed how the global jihadist ideology had found new fertile ground within the Palestinian territories, particularly in the West Bank and Gaza Strip. The PIJ, aligned closely with Iran, had always been a staunch advocate of violent jihad, but its tactics and ambitions were becoming increasingly aligned with the global jihadist movement, as championed by groups like ISIS. Hamas, on the other hand, was caught between its traditional social agenda and a more radical jihadist approach, leaning toward violence in response to perceived provocations.
By 2022, it was clear that Hamas was no longer a purely nationalist movement. The rhetoric coming from Gaza, the increasing integration of jihadist ideologies, and the visible influence of groups like ISIS within the Palestinian territories all pointed to a future where Israel would face a new kind of adversary—one not just bent on territorial control but on inflicting global jihadist violence.
The October 7th attack epitomized this shift. The scale of the operation, the targeting of civilians, and the use of advanced military tactics demonstrated that Hamas, once primarily focused on Gaza, was now thinking on a much larger, more global scale. The organization had adopted a kind of apocalyptic mindset, much like ISIS, focusing not just on liberating Palestine but on inciting wider conflict in the region and beyond.
One of the key elements I identified in my 2022 analysis was the rising influence of ISIS’s ideology on Palestinian militant groups. While ISIS had avoided direct confrontation with Israel in the past, its extremist worldview had slowly infiltrated Palestinian jihadist circles. The October 7th attack bore all the hallmarks of ISIS-style brutality: coordinated multi-pronged assaults, indiscriminate killing of civilians, and a willingness to die for the cause.
But the ISIS connection didn’t stop there. Iran, which has long been a supporter of Hamas and PIJ, had been instrumental in pushing these groups toward more jihadist methods. Tehran has provided both financial and military support, including advanced weaponry and training, which Hamas used to launch the October 7th attack. Iran's desire to create chaos in the region, destabilizing Israel and the West, is evident in its continued support of groups like Hamas and PIJ, which now have far more radicalized aims than ever before.
In my 2022 article, I argued that the use of jihadist rhetoric by Hamas and PIJ had historical and religious roots, particularly in the importance of Jerusalem and the Al-Aqsa Mosque in Islamic tradition. This religious significance had always been a rallying cry for Palestinian groups, but it was increasingly framed within a jihadist context, which sees violence as the only solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
The October 7th attacks were a direct reflection of this ideology. Hamas's insistence on the importance of "resistance" and its rejection of any peace process mirrored the global jihadist movement's rejection of diplomacy and negotiations. Instead, these groups embraced violence as a means of achieving their goals—an idea that had been growing in influence for years and which finally erupted in the horrors of October 7.
The October 7th attacks were a direct manifestation of the trends I highlighted in 2022. Israel is no longer dealing with nationalists seeking territorial concessions. Instead, it faces an enemy driven by a jihadist ideology that is bent on mass murder and destabilization. This shift in the nature of the conflict poses new challenges not only for Israel but for the wider Middle East.
Amine Ayoub is a Policy Analyst and Writer based in Morocco.