Is Egypt about to descend into chaos? A researcher at Ariel University says this is a likely development, if the government of Mohammed Morsi is toppled.
Dr. Bosmat Yefet Avshalom, a senior researcher at the Center for Middle East research at Ariel University, predicts that the situation in Egypt will become inherently unstable, if the huge protests against Morsi's regime succeed in toppling him.
In a special review paper quoted in Maariv, Dr. Avshalom explains that a campaign of delegitimization has been waged by the opposition, protest groups and independent media almost since Morsi took power in June 2012. This campaign has peaked in recent days, with the ultimatum issued to Morsi by the military.
She predicted that the fall of the Muslim Brotherhood will not lead to calm but to a series of rebellions. "Even if the aspirations of the opposition are realized, and the military brings about the president's resignation and the holding of free elections, this does not ensure that the political forces in Egypt, including the Islamic radicals, will be able to bridge the huge gaps that separate them, and heal the rift in Egypt's political system."
The way in which Morsi is being toppled could affect the fate of any president who fails to live up to the expectations of the masses, for an improvement in their financial situation and personal security, she added. This could bring about a series of "mini rebellions" in the country. This is a likely scenario, she said, because of the fractured nature of the opposition, which has yet to produce a leader who is widely accepted.
The military is likely to seize power during a transition period, the expert explained, and then hand over power to political parties. However, even if an alliance is formed between the various forces that rebelled against Morsi, the coalition is likely to fall apart soon afterward because these forces hold radically different social and economic approaches.
She added that the Muslim Brotherhood has not had its last say, and could wage a guerrilla war against the government that follows it.
The Brotherhood believes it has been tripped up by remnants of the old regime and by the justice system, which it sees as defending the interests of oligarchs. The Brotherhood and its supporters "will not accept their fate without a struggle – possibly violent – against the forces they see as having toppled them."