Op-Ed: A Cold War Hot Victory: The Meaning of Assad's Fall
Mark LangfanThe writer, who specializes in security issues, has created an original...
In the Syrian "Revolution," we are witnessing the beginnings of the greatest "hot" military victory the world has ever seen in a "cold" war. As we speak, in Syria, the dark evil forces of Iran are, hopefully, in the process of being militarily defeated by the bright, good forces of Saudi Arabia.
Unfortunately, the strategic importance to the West of what will be an inexorable Iranian Shiite defeat and a Saudi Sunni victory in Syria is not even partially understood by the mainstream narrative.
A Sunni victory in Syria may very well spare the world from a looming World War which is casting Iran as the new Nazi Germany bent on world military domination. It is as if in 1938, instead of the West's Munich's appeasement, an anti-Hitler Italian revolution crushed the fascist Italian dictator Benito Mussolini, and turned Italy into enemy of Hitler and forward base of operations against Hitler for allied forces. Such a "1938 anti-Hitler Italian" revolution would have likely dealt a catastrophically fatal counter-stroke to Hitler’s world-wide ambitions. In a heartbeat, Hitler’s entire order of battle calculus, which had otherwise enabled Hitler to confidently start World War II and invade Poland, would have been reversed against the Third Reich.
Similarly, the immediate consequence of the liquidation of Bashar Assad and his Shiite Alawite clan from its minority tyrannical and sectarian rule of Syria, would clearly be a catastrophic sui generis defeat for Iran, Syria's Senior Partner in the, until-now, waxing Pan-Shiite crescent.
But that's only the beginning of the fall of Iran's "House of Cards." This Iranian Shiite defeat in Syria will have many second and third order immediate consequences that are already beginning to be felt like an earthquake throughout the entire region.
First, the Iranian "sphere" of Iraq will no longer be an Iranian sure-thing walkover, let alone an Iranian "sphere." With the new Sunni Syria as an Iranian enemy instead of an Iranian puppet-state to the West of Iraq, all of a sudden, Iraq will have the ability to stand up to Iran in the East in ways that Iraq never had before when it was bookended to the West and East by two long-standing Iranian military powerhouses.
Also, to the Iraqi Sunnis in Western Iraq, a Sunni-Ruled Syria gives them a real Sunni "Big Brother" to the West that can defend them against the Iraqi Shiite Central Government. In fact, if the Shiite-dominated Iraqi Central Government doesn't begin to show respect the Western Iraqi Sunnis, Western Iraq could very well secede from Iraq, and form a "Greater Sunni Syria" as a counterweight to al-Maliki pipe-dreams of being a Shiite Saddam Hussein. All of this would leave al-Maliki's anti-Sunni tactics as a one-way ticket to nowhere in a hurry unless he quickly changes his anti-Sunni, pro-Shiite sectarian course and douses the flames of the rampant sectarian suicide explosions.
Second, without the Iranian Syrian puppet-state weapons candy-store, the Iranian "Mini-Me" Hizbullah will be without any land access to the Iranian weapons supply-line. Without that guaranteed land-based Iranian weapons pipeline through Syria, Hizbullah can, and will, be rolled up by the Lebanese government and the Western-allied Sunni Cedar revolution forces that want to take back their hijacked country from the Iranian Hizbullah "Resistance" crazies.
Without the Syrian weapons supply train, Hizbullah’s initiating any war with Israel, for any reason, would be suicidal. Lebanese voices are already being loudly and brazenly raised that Hizbullah had better "see the writing on the Syrian wall" and voluntarily disarm before they are forcibly disarmed once Assad turns to dust. Such a Cedar Lebanon will escape from the "Iranian Resistance Camp," and seek safe refuge in the Saudi anti-Iranian camp.
Third, with Syria and Lebanon out of Iran’s axis of evil, and militarily allied with Saudi Arabia and Jordan, the beginnings of a natural indigenous anti-Iranian Sunni military counterweight to Iran will have been sparked. Such a Pan-Arab Sunni force could form a vast and strategically formidable defense of the Sunni and Western World against a waxing nuclear armed Iran. In such a Sunni Arab military counter-weight, the West will have a natural Sunni ally against Iran which will serve as the tip of the West's spear against Iran.
Fourthly, the Iranian people themselves will see that Sunni world was able to successfully and forcibly rid itself of the cancer that is the Iranian "Reign of Mahdi Terror." Iran's billions in foreign "investments" in mayhem, bedlam, and death will have collapsed before the Mullahs very eyes. In the face of such a strategic calamity and the squandering of Iran's precious billions in resources to foment pure bloodshed, the Iranian forces of good may be able to complete the revolution haltingly started in the spring of 2009.
Finally, the last thing this nascent, or even full-grown, Sunni Mesopotamian Alliance will want to do is start a war with the militarily benign Israel, and put the entire Levant into play. Israel provides the Mesopotamian Sunni Alliance with a cost-effective de facto non-hostile and indestructible logistics node for US and Western resupply of any Pan-Sunni defense against any Iranian westward attack.
If anything, the current Syrian revolution has only conclusively proved that Israel is not the cause of Middle East "instability," but rather, the bedrock of Middle East stability.
In conclusion, the Anti-Assad Sunni Syrian revolution has the promise of forming an embryonic, indigenous Sunni Arab military counterweight capable of possibly defending itself against the waxing nuclear Iran.
Such a natural congealing of the Arab Sunni peoples may be the world's best, and only long-term hope, of defeating the Iranian mad Mahdian march to world nuclear domination.