Erfan Fard
Erfan FardCourtesy

The geopolitical dynamics in the Middle East have witnessed a notable shift, particularly concerning the evolving peace framework between Israel and Saudi Arabia. The emergence of a potential peace agreement, while significant for regional stability, is encountering a substantial challenge from Iran, a nation deeply entrenched in its support for Palestinian militant groups and an ambition to exert influence across the region.

The Abraham Accords, signed between Israel and the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain in 2020, marked a crucial development towards Arab-Israeli normalization. However, this diplomatic progress has been met with strong criticism from Iran, revealing its stance against the growing regional influence of Israel. Moreover, Iran's support for various Palestinian groups underscores the strategic importance it places on maintaining a strong network of Sunni allies.

Historically, Iran severed its alliance with Israel after the 1979 revolution, aligning itself with the Palestinian cause symbolically by handing over the Israeli embassy in Tehran to the Palestine Liberation Organization. The potential alignment between Saudi Arabia and Israel threatens to reshape the regional power dynamics. Iran, already facing international isolation, is expected to escalate its efforts to influence the political landscape of Syria, Iraq, Lebanon, Bahrain, Qatar, and Yemen to counter this emerging alliance.

Despite the intricate threat picture, the White House National Security Council remains vigilant and prepared to respond to any hostile actions initiated by Iran against Israel and Saudi Arabia. It is evident that the Saudi-Israel ties are central to pushing back against the Iranian regime, which has consistently demonstrated aggressive behavior and destabilizing tactics in the region.

Iran's response to this peace framework is expected to be multifaceted. The Ministry of Intelligence and Security (MOIS) and the IRGC Quds Force are likely to intensify their efforts to disrupt the peace process. Coordinated actions with Saudi intelligence (GIP) and Mossad could involve operations within Iran or targeting Iranian spy stations and military bases in the Middle East.

The strategic importance of Saudi Arabia and Israel, both allies of the US, cannot be understated. Their collaboration with the US in sharing intelligence serves as a formidable deterrent against Iran. However, the Iranian regime's intent to counter US influence through aggressive and destabilizing activities via proxy forces remains a key concern.

The Iranian threat extends beyond the region, involving the proliferation of advanced weaponry, including drones. The transfer of such technology to hostile actors presents a global challenge, potentially destabilizing various regions. The Iranian regime's aggressive posturing and threats to international trade, particularly through the Strait of Hormuz, further heighten concerns about its intentions.

Freedom for Iran
Freedom for IranErfan Fard

Saudi Arabia is under significant threat, particularly from Iran-backed Houthi militants in Yemen, and also grapples with pro-Iranian militias in Iraq. The threat scenario is exacerbated by Iran's support for terror groups like Hamas, exacerbating Israel's security challenges. Israel's security concerns encompass a range of threats, from Hezbollah's increasing capabilities to potential unconventional warfare orchestrated by Iran's Quds Force.

In this evolving landscape, it is imperative for Israel and Saudi Arabia to align their regional diplomatic and military efforts, forming a robust front against Iran's destabilizing regional policies. Cooperation in counterterrorism and intelligence sharing will play a pivotal role in enhancing regional security.

In conclusion, the shifting geopolitical dynamics in the Middle East, characterized by the evolving peace framework between Israel and Saudi Arabia, are countered by Iran's deep-rooted ambition to maintain regional influence and oppose this emerging alignment. The threats posed by Iran encompass not only the traditional military sphere but also asymmetric warfare and support for proxy forces, emphasizing the criticality of a cohesive regional response to ensure stability and peace.