When Biden began his term of office, he planned to pursue the path of Obama’s legacy which was to revitalize JCOPA. Regardless of numerous challenges, he hoped to reach another nuclear agreement for use as propaganda in the coming presidential election in 2024. For this reason, Biden assigned a dishonorable individual as a special envoy, someone who had no understanding about the mullahs to negotiate with Iranian regime in Tehran.
Biden’s Iran strategy remains ambiguity. Meanwhile, he did not prevent a crisis, because the regime in Tehran continued its destructive role and aggressive approach.
The mullah’s regime backed Russia in the war with Ukraine by shipping drones. After Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the hard core of the pro-Russian regime in Tehran raised its ugly head again. Factually, the KGB was behind the Islamic and Marxist terrorist groups which were involved in 1979 revolution in Iran, so the Shia mullahs are waiting on communist Putin hand and foot. They have danced with evil in the orbit of the Kremlin and most of the regime’s Russophile authorities and elites are allies of Moscow.
During this period nationwide antiregime protests erupted in Iran. Akin to Obama’s lack of concern, Biden did not like to condemn mullah’brutality in repression of opponents. The savagery of the mullahs' repressive behavior brings to mind the violent scenes of other notorious dictators in the world. They detained more than 22000 protesters and slaughtered more than 600.
After a long while, the White House recognized that reinstating the JCPOA is fruitless, that it was another failure for the foreign policy of Biden’s administration, and it was paving the way for a different future in Iran-US relations. Seemingly, Tehran was not serious in talking with American diplomats and there was not any gesture in moderating the regime’s behavior or changing the course. The mullahs are now attempting to preserve the status quo regarding their nuclear projects. There seems to be no plan in the White House to push back or stop Iran’s malignant activities.
In actuality, Iran has a special place among the reports and analyses of the US intelligence community. Since 1979, in aftermath of Khomeini’s revolt in Iran, US foreign policy has a different concern- Iran’s animosity with a series of terrorist attacks in the region through its proxies.
For decades, without little avail, Washington’s Iran policy was not effective in making peace or penalizing Iran. When it comes to actual fighting, in return, Washington was reluctant to support regime change. However, Israel revealed the necessity of eliminating Iran’s adversary and its challenging policies for regional instability. By and large, Israel was successful in destroying Iran’s proponents.
Currently, the consequence of Biden’s strategy and his calculations are entangled. It goes without saying that Biden got himself in hot water by the scandal in removing Rober Malley. The plot thickened and a warning bell started to ring.
From one side, the influential and radical Iranian policymakers in the circle of Khamenei are attempting to operationalize Khamenei’s vision for a smooth transition. From another side it is the anniversary of Mahsa Amini’s killing in Tehran which probably leads to outbreaking another internal turmoil. As usual, by focusing on survival, the mullah apparatus is willing to engage in malign behavior and terrorizing the courageous young protesters who want to return to the streets again. Strangely enough, there is no profound political change. “The wolf may lose his teeth, but never his nature.”
In the White House and other political corridors in Washington there is an idea that, any potential resuscitating and reviving the JCPOA with criminal mullahs has no credibility because the legitimacy of the regime is diminished. “The first regime of Allah on earth” with terrorist loving mullahs and nuclear ambitions is in decline.
To be sure, the world should be vigilant and alert to stymie Iran’s nuclear ambitions, otherwise they will desire to fuel other conflicts in the Middle East. Almost certainly, the future of Iran is dependent on the young Iranian decision makers who sculpt the upcoming events. Eventually, “The young protesters have sculpted the New Iran” but it is unlikely to survive to know “The likelihood of regime change in Iran”.
Even s, no one knows “When will the Mullahs' regime fall?”, but until then, there will be no “Turning Point” in changing the mullah’s behavior. The word “peace” is not in mullah’s book and its vocabulary.
Erfan Fard is a counter-terrorism analyst and Middle East Studies researcher based in Washington, DC. He is in Middle Eastern regional security affairs with a particular focus on Iran, counter terrorism, IRGC, MOIS and ethnic conflicts in MENA. He graduated in International Security Studies (London M. University, UK), and in International Relations (CSU-LA). Erfan is a Jewish Kurd of Iran, and he is fluent in Persian, Kurdish, Arabic and English. / Follow him from this twitter account @EQFARD / The newly published book of Erfan Fard is: “The gruesome mullah” , which has been published in the USA. www.erfanfard.net