Yair Lapid is a delightful man, far more genial than Netanyahu, and Benny Gantz is well-intentioned and good-looking. Nonetheless, if they continue to hold power, especially if that power is shared with their partners, Meretz and the likes of Ofer Kasif (the MK who said “Palestinians shooting IDF soldiers are like partisans fighting Nazis"), Israel’s fate will resemble a delicious chocolate cake baked for the holidays – it will disappear. Territorially.
This is why you, now reading this article, need to pay careful attention.
Yair Lapid is much nicer than the leaders of the grouchy, bristly Israeli right. But Israel’s right-wing bristly grouches are the very ones who are best at intuiting the mindset of Israel’s many enemies. Yair Lapid’s gray cells do not soak in this sort of knowledge. He cannot help lapsing back into the fond, friendly viewpoint that all human beings are inherently well-intentioned.
This is the core psychological difference between prudent conservatives on the Right and conciliatory liberals on the Left. This is why the Right is unattractive, but correct in its warnings and policies, whereas the Left is inspiring, personable, fulfilling to vote for, but misguided and dangerous. This is why coarse, boorish Churchill opposed Hitler, whereas cultured Chamberlain did not. Chamberlain was not an evil person – to the contrary, he was a gentleman, whereas Churchill was fat, rude, and ill-tempered. It is no coincidence that repulsive Churchill was the one to save the civilized world from Hitler – from the catastrophic problem that benign neglect by Europe’s distinguished Chamberlains had caused.
Some of us think we can vote for the left from time to time, because 80% of the issues that plague Israel are not in controversy between right and left – how to collect the garbage, how to care for Holocaust survivors, and so forth. Naftali Bennett originated this misleading theory.
In fact, the 20% of the issues which ARE in controversy between right and left mysteriously pop up the very instant the left comes to power. This is because Israel’s many enemies (remember them?) make sure to press forward with “their” deadly 20% of the issues, the instant that right-wing hands leave the helm.
This is why the give-away of territorial waters is mysteriously transpiring right now, during the left’s short term in power, to Hezbollah’s glee.
This is why the giveaway of Central Israel’s Golan Heights (the Homesh highlands) is poised to occur and needs only a nod from Gantz, which Gantz could give within days or hours after the election.
This is why the plan to set up a fully armed Palestinian Arab state next-door was suddenly revived and endorsed in the halls of the UN, during Lapid’s tiny power-window (to be continued?? beware of 1 November).
This is also why the Palestinian Arab land-grabbing machine is working at top speed at turning Israel’s front-line settlements in area C into doomed enclaves to render tiny Israel territorially defenseless, as Regavim has found out and reported over and over.
This is not to speak of the “excellent” work of Israel’s enemies in radicalizing Israeli Arabs, as we saw in our mixed cities in 2000.
None of these developments is co-incidential. Israel’s antisemitic enemies are neither illiterate nor stupid; they read the Israeli media and they know exactly who is in power and what can be obtained from them, if they move fast (which they do).
Here is where you, reading this article, need to pay careful attention. There are 3 ways you can inadvertently bring Israel’s Chamberlain-style left to power; you must avoid all three like the plague.
-The first is not to vote at all. I hope that any English-speaking reader knows that everyone must vote – including sick people, families sitting shiva, the handicapped, the elderly and people who are “not interested in politics”. Please make sure everyone you know intends to present themselves on D-day. It is a big mitzva to drive someone to the voting booth if she might otherwise not vote.
-The second is to vote for Benny Gantz. Benny Gantz’s most likely partners are the left – Meretz and the vociferous anti-Zionist parties. Is it possible Gantz might miraculously find someone else to tango with In theory, but the only way to be 100% certain or even 30% certain of a right-wing government, which must be your goal, is simply to cast a vote for the right-wing parties – Likud, Smotrich/Ben-Gvir, or the hareidi parties, UJT or Shas – whichever one you dislike the least.
-The third way to inadvertently crown Israel’s Chamberlain-style left is to vote for Ayelet Shaked. Ayelet Shaked is an exceptionally able and ideological leader, like Eli Yishai, Moshe Feiglin and many others. She was in fact Number One in the 2018 Mattot Arim parliamentary achievement report. However, if you look at uzit.co.il or themadad.com, you will see many surveys, all of which predict that all votes for Ayelet Shaked are going to be wasted.
There are simply not enough modern-religious Zionists, in life-style and in heart, in Efrat, Kfar Saba, Raanana, Givat Shmuel and Rehovot, to hand Ayelet 4 seatsas opposed to 2 seats or even 3.
However, the approximately 2 seats that this sector can muster are the very votes which may nudge the right to victory, if cast for right wing parties which do pass the threshold, see list above.
In the past, wasted votes for Bennett and for Eli Yishai had predictable catastrophic results for Israel, and the same is slated to happen if Shaked is so misguided as to continue running, which I hope she does not.
All the claims of Shaked being “close to the electoral threshold” are incorrect, just as they were when voiced about Bennett and Eli Yishai.
For example, the recent report that if Netanyahu were to urge the public to vote for Shaked, her list would miraculously pass the electoral threshold is incorrect. What that poll showed was that ONE possible outcome, statistically, was Shaked getting 3.4% of the vote, and just squeaking by the electoral threshold of 3.25% by less than quarter of a percent (0.15%).
Anyone who (like the writer of this article) holds a degree in statistics knows that the low level of accuracy of polling does not even remotely justify relying on such a tiny possible win, because being quarter of a percent LESS THAN the electoral threshold is just as likely.
I am easy to find online and am pleased to make myself available personally to anyone in the voting public who has questions or concerns about this article or about Israel’s critical situation.
Susie Dym holds an academic degree in statistics from the Hebrew University and is the veteran spokesperson of Mattot Arim ([email protected]).