Lee Zeldin
Lee Zeldin REUTERS

The Republican challenger aiming to unseat New York Governor Kathy Hochul has pulled in to a statistical dead-heat with the incumbent, according to a new poll released Thursday.

The poll, conducted by the Trafalgar Group, found that if the gubernatorial election were held today, Hochul would win with 44.5% of the vote, compared to 42.8% for Republican Congressman Lee Zeldin, with 3.2% of respondents favoring Libertarian Party candidate Larry Sharpe. Nearly ten percent of respondents remain undecided.

Hochul’s lead over Zeldin fell from 4.4 points in the previous Trafalgar poll, released in early September, to just 1.9 points, well within the poll’s margin of error, making the race effectively a dead-heat between the two candidates.

Both Zeldin and Hochul lost ground since the previous poll, falling from 47.8% for Hochul to 44.5%, and 43.4% to 42.8% for Zeldin, while Sharpe rose from 2.1% in September to 3.2%.

While other polls show Hochul with a wider margin over Zeldin, the RealClearPolitics rolling average of polls still shows Hochul consistently underperforming her predecessor, Andrew Cuomo, in his 2018 run.

That year, Cuomo, running for reelection, defeated Republican Marc Molinaro by 23.4 points, 59.6% to 36.2%.

According to the latest RealClearPolitics polling average, Hochul leads Zeldin by just 11.4 points.