Ahead of the vote to extend emergency regulations in Judea and Samaria tomorrow (Monday), Kan News reported that Ra'am chairman Mansour Abbas told members of the coalition that he "could not see a way of forcing [fellow Ra'am MK Masud Gnaim to vote in favor]."
According to the same sources, Abbas sounds pessimistic about the chance that the law will be passed, among other things, because of suspicion towards MK Ghaida Rinawie Zoabi. The Meretz MK has yet to reveal whether she will support the measure.
MK Idit Silman of Yamina has also indicated that she intends to oppose the law along with members of the opposition, casting doubt on whether it will pass a preliminary vote.
In a surprise move, Meretz faction chairwoman, Michal Rosin, announced her support for the law "out of fear the Right would return to power."
"If I knew I could overthrow the coalition and a center-left government would gain power, I'd do it today," she said. "But we'd end up getting the worst of both worlds if [our votes end up bringing down the current regime since a Netanyahu-led coalition would vote the law in tomorrow."
"The right has room to maneuver. They can form another government and let someone other than Netanyahu take over as prime minister or fool us all by dissolving the Knesset and going to the polls a month from now. We have no control over the situation," she added.
The law in question has been renewed every five years and is due to expire at the end of June. It applies criminal law as well as certain key civil rights (including ones related to income tax and health insurance) to areas beyond the "Green Line," and if permitted to lapse, the consequences could be grave. Israeli police, for example, could end up losing authority to arrest Israelis committing crimes within pre-'67 borders and fleeing to Judea and Samaria. Israelis living in these areas would also lose their rights to their health insurance.
The coalition is currently short of the 60 votes necessary to extend the law. Justice Minister Gideon Saar, who is pushing for the measure to be passed, commented that, "No one has a clue what chaos would ensue if this law expires," adding: "Coalition members who vote against this law are basically saying, ‘I don’t want this government to continue its existence.'"
Deputy Attorney General Avital Sompolinsky noted that, "If the law expires, it will have dramatic consequences in many areas, and a situation whereby the State lacks legal authority to enforce the law in Judea and Samaria will have far-reaching consequences for the Israeli legal system."
She added that it was for good reason that the government saw fit to install these emergency regulations as early as 1967, before the first Jewish communities in Judea and Samaria had been established.
In her opinion, there are also security implications for failing to extend the law. "From a security point of view, we emphasize that the expiration of the regulations means that there will be no authority to hold a prisoner in a military court in Israel. According to the information provided to us, over 3,500 terrorists from Judea and Samaria are being held in Israeli prisons. As a result, a solution will have to be found for the incarceration of these individuals, which can be expected to have serious security consequences and dramatic logistical problems."
Sompolinsky provided another example of what could happen in the absence of such regulations: "Judea and Samaria would become a de facto 'city of refuge' for certain types of criminals," she said.
"On a practical-logistical level, preparing for this situation will require intensive training by the military prosecutor's office in Judea and Samaria," she added. "The expiration of the regulations would make the management of daily life close to impossible."