The American-Israel Strategic Planning Group, with leading members such as Bennett Zimmerman and Yoram Ettinger, has again publicized data contradicting the chilling picture that serves as the Left's rationalization of and excuse for the policy of withdrawals. In general, the picture is exactly the opposite of everything we assumed. There is a sharp decline in Arab birthrates and a constant rise in Jewish birthrates.

The picture is exactly the opposite of everything we assumed.

In 1995, just 69% of all births within the Green Line were among Jews. In the first four months of this year, they have already reached 75.5% - a 6.5% increase in 12 years. And one more sensational statistic: in 1969, the average Arab woman in Israel six more children than the average Jewish woman. That gap had shrunk in 2006 to 0.8; that is, less than one child.

In 2006, 15,000 Arabs left Judea and Samaria and 10,500 left Gaza. Today, population growth among the Arabs in Judea and Samaria is less than that among the Jews within the Green Line. And the number of Arabs in Judea and Samaria is not 2.5 million - as government experts and the Left claim, having just copied false data provided by the Palestinian Authority - but 1.5 million. One million less.

Logic suggests that this picture, which allays demographic fears, would alter the policy conclusions that required withdrawal and collapse. Yet, this does not occur, because the rule is that the Palestino-Jewish cult doesn't accept good news and it even keeps it from the public through its complete control of the media.

The question is: Why? Why do they knowingly mislead themselves regarding proven facts? Why would a captain willfully run his ship aground?

From demography to the IDF. It was reported in the Internet edition of Maariv on January 29 this year that when then-Chief of Staff Dan Halutz was asked, in an internal IDF consultation, why the ground offensive in the last war was so long in coming, he answered that he did not count on the troops. That is an earthshaking, senstaional item, almost unbelievable; yet, it disappeared from view - because it was made to disappear.

Similarly, a very unusual article, bordering on the unimaginable, appeared on the Internet. It was by Dr. Boaz Cohen, an historian and researcher who served in a reserve combat unit on the Lebanese border in June 2006, just before the war. He wrote that the IDF clearly relinquished Israeli sovereignty in exchange for "the Hizbullah quiet." They allowed Hizbullah to prepare mine fields and to point guns and rockets at us, as long as it was done within Lebanon's borders - a ridiculous situation even under international law. Military operations were subject to the overriding concern of "quiet in the Galilee" to the point that the IDF was careful not to cause Hizbullah too many losses, so as not to heat up the front.

The army promoted a codeword: "Zero targets." That is, the soldiers were pulled back from the border so that Hizbullah would not have targets for kidnapping. Border outposts were abandoned and patrols stopped traveling along the border's security road.

In the town of Ghajar, the IDF left an empty position in the hope that a Hizbullah attack would focus on it. And that is, indeed, what happened. 40 Hizbullah fighters overran the outpost and dynamited the pillbox, and in the adjacent outpost they damaged vehicles, including tanks, vandalizing everything, and went on their way. The position was not booby-trapped, artillery was not fired at it, there were no ambushes, and the IDF suffered nine injuries.

No one is asking why this has happened to the army. How has the IDF - which we knew as aggressive, aware, preempting, proactive - reached this disgraceful state of

Perhaps an army indoctrinated to believe that land is not important... will abandon outposts and roads within sovereign Israel.

passiveness and defeatism, a state of mental retreat?

No one has investigated the possible connection between leftist political ideology and the shoddy performance in the field. Maybe this is how it looks when an army has had its ideals, motivation and faith in the justice of its cause taken way. Maybe this is how it looks when an army is fed a leftist code of ethics and when its Prime Minister is "tired of winning"? Perhaps, in a society whose rulers, elite and media have internalized the messages of the enemy and, in large part, already identify with them, the army too cannot escape the rot. Perhaps, an army indoctrinated to believe that land is not important and is not worth fighting over will abandon outposts and roads within sovereign Israeli territory.

No one is researching those connections because such an investigation may prove that it is impossible to halt the rot at any imaginary green line - rot has a way of spreading until it destroys the entire organism. An army trained to effectively fight its own citizens, in the name of the holy egoism of the "now," temporary quiet and momentary comfort, will never know how to make distinctions. Why abandon and destroy Netzarim and N'vei Dekalim, but give one's life for Misgav Am and Kfar Giladi?

And from here to the biggest question of all.

Public Security Minister and former General Security Services (GSS) Director Avi Dichter testified before the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee in February 2004:

"I foresee no change in Gaza as a result of the Disengagement... And I do not identify a possibility of chaos or that the Hamas will begin a process leading to the takeover of Gaza. Hamas... is wary of civil war... The Fatah-Tanzim apparatus is dozens of times bigger than Hamas, which understands that."

Dichter said all of that in his capacity as head of the GSS, that is, as our eyes - eyes that cannot see - and everything, literally every word, came out backwards. The Disengagement led to chaos in Gaza and a takeover by Hamas, which was not wary of a civil war and which easily dispersed the Fatah-Tanzim.

Currently, Dichter is an important and central minister in a government involved up to its neck in negotiations and practical preparations to repeat in Judea and Samaria exactly what they did in Gaza. Discussions are underway with the Americans and with Abu Mazen's people to reach, within months, an agreement-in-principle on a Palestinian state in 70-80% of the territory of Judea and Samaria, with historic Jerusalem as its capital, including "cleansing" the territory of Jews and the withdrawal of the IDF. Were Dichter to again appear before the Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee, it can be assumed that he would again claim that there is no concern of chaos in what he calls "the West Bank,"

"I foresee no change in Gaza as a result of the Disengagement..." -- Avi Dichter

and there is no concern that Hamas would take over, because Fatah-Tanzim is 10 times stronger.

What will they tell the investigative commission that will be appointed when Beit Shean, Afula, Haifa, Hadera, Netanya, Herzliya,Petach Tikva and Tel Aviv are prey to Kassams and Katyushas? What will they say after Hamas does take over and, more so, when the murderers from the Fatah's Al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigades - after having used up the 100,000-shekel bribe they received for handing in their weapons at the entrance to the police station and receiving it at the exit - return to terrorism under a new moniker? And how will they explain it when Fatah again collaborates with Hamas? How do they explain that, even now, Abu Mazen is paying thousands of Hamas officials in Gaza, including Ismail Haniyeh himself, from monies tranferred to him by the government of Israel?

What moves those people to take their people, their nation and ultimately themselves down a path that may lead to destruction?

No doubt this question will be investigated. Let it only be before the disaster, not afterwards.