Yoram Ettinger
Yoram Ettinger Courtesy

(JNS) Official Palestinian demographic numbers are highly inflated, as documented by a study that has been conducted since 2004:

500,000 overseas residents, who have been away for over a year, are included in the Palestinian Authority census, contrary to international regulations. 325,000 were included in the 1997 census, according to the Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics, and 400,000 in 2005, according to the Palestinian Election Commission. The number grows steadily due to births.

350,000 eastern Jerusalem Arabs are double-counted—by Israel and the Palestinian Authority. The number grows daily due to births.

Over 150,000 Arabs who married Israeli Arabs are similarly double-counted. The number expands daily due to births.

370,000 Arab emigrants from Judea and Samaria are excluded from the population census of the Palestinian Authority, notwithstanding the annual net emigration since 1950. For example, 17,958 in 2021, 26,357 in 2019, 15,173 in 2017, 16,393 in 2015 and 24,244 in 2014, as documented (exits and entries) at all the land, air and sea international passages.

A 32% artificial inflation of Palestinian Arab births was documented by the World Bank (page 8, item 6) in a 2006 audit.

The Arab fertility rate in Judea and Samaria has been Westernized: from nine births per woman in the 1960s to 2.96 births in 2022, as documented by the CIA World Factbook. It reflects sweeping urbanization, growing enrollment of women in higher education, rising marriage age and the use of contraceptives.

The number of natural Arab deaths in Judea and Samaria has been systematically under-reported for political and financial reasons.

The aforementioned data documents 1.5 million Arabs in Judea and Samaria, when deducting the aforementioned documented data from the official Palestinian number (three million).

In 2022, there is a 68% Jewish majority in the combined area of Judea, Samaria and pre-1967 Israel. In 1947 and 1897 there was a 39% and 9% Jewish minority, respectively. In 2022, the 68% Jewish majority benefits from a fertility tailwind and net immigration, while Arab fertility is Westernized, in addition to net emigration from Judea and Samaria.

There is no Arab demographic time bomb, but rather Jewish demographic momentum. More data in this article and this short video.

Yoram Ettinger is a former ambassador and head of Second Thought: A U.S.-Israel Initiative.

This article was originally published at The Ettinger Report.

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