Iran (illustrative)
Iran (illustrative) Reuters

Israel's political echelon estimates that the chance of the US signing an agreement with Iran is dropping "at an increasing rate," Israel Hayom reported.

Two sources in the political echelon told Israel Hayom that as of now, it seems that the chance of an agreement is low and possibly even nil.

Those sources emphasized that there still may be a surprising turn of events, at the end of which an agreement is signed, but according to one of them, "the chance that the sides will sign an agreement in the foreseeable future is moving further away, at an exponential rate."

Until about a month ago, the widespread diplomatic and defense assumption in Israel was that the US and Iran would sign an agreement. This estimate was based on the US government's excitement to return to the original deal signed in 2015, which many of the current US administration helped write up. To this end, the US compromised on many issues, prompting two of its senior negotiating staff to quit.

A draft of the plan has already been obtained, and a date for signing the agreement was discussed, but the Vienna talks led the sides to separate while waiting for a response from Tehran.

Meanwhile, Tehran did not reply that it would reject or adopt the agreement, and has instead set new conditions, among them the removal of the Revolutionary Guards from the US' list of terror organizations.

In addition to the official talks in Vienna, Israel Hayom discovered that the US administration held under-the-radar contact with Iran to see if there was a way to bridge the gaps. One option proposed was to remove the Revolutionary Guards from the terror list, but keep its Quds Force on the list. These efforts did not succeed and eventually the talks died down.