Michael Oren
Michael OrenYonatan Sindel

Former Israeli ambassador to the United States Dr. Michael Oren estimates on Arutz Sheva that the last hours until the polls close in the presidential election, the candidates will invest mainly in those who will be undecided until the last minute.

"There is a certain percentage, though not a large one, that is undecided until the ballot box. Trump and Biden's campaigns targeted those people. Because the difference in key states like Pennsylvania and Florida is very small and can be several thousand or even hundreds of votes," Oren says.

According to him, this increases the power of the state's Jews. "The Jewish vote in this election is so important and critical. It can be decisive in Florida, because whoever wins in this state has a chance to win the whole race. There are many Jews in Florida and Biden people, including those who live in Israel. They turn to the Jews in the country and claim that Biden is good for Israel and Trump is bad. Some even go so far as to say that the nuclear agreement was good for Israel."

The gaps in the surveys are not a sufficient indication for him. "In 2016 the polls indicated a victory for Hillary Clinton and this time there is a phenomenon of fear among citizens who worry that if they admit to voting for Trump they could lose for their job, their friends, and maybe even family. "Even my family in the U.S. wouldn't dare say they vote for Trump."

When asked if Joe Biden should be feared, Dr. Oren answers, "There are differences between Biden and Obama. I know Joe Biden personally and he is pro-Israel and committed to our safety. He will not use American aid as a tool of pressure on us. However, he is still a democratic president who has clear positions on both the Palestinian issue and the Iranian issue. These positions are inconsistent with almost every government in Israel. This includes support for the Obama-Clinton outline for two states based on the 1967 borders and East Jerusalem as the capital of the Palestinian state, vigorous opposition to Jewish construction in Judea and Samaria and the united Jerusalem, as well as the Iranian issue, support for the renewal of the nuclear agreement and sanctions. The situation will be very challenging for Israel."

He also identifies extremism in America, which could harm Israel, regardless of the identity of the president-elect. "America is extremizing. We feel the extremism more on the Democratic side, but there is extremism on the Republican side as well. The polarization is very large and we may be on the verge of an explosion. The situation is very flammable and the country is saturated with weapons, and that's dangerous. What the two parties have in common that will affect us and will affect us in the future is isolationism. Both parties are no longer happy to be policemen of the world anymore. "In 1982, I sat with IDF forces in Beirut and we knew that if we got very involved, the Marines would come to rescue us. Today they will not come and we are alone in the arena."

Oren notes that Trump's term was dreamlike for Israel. "We got everything from the Americans. There are things we didn't even ask for - and we got. Trump has set a very high standard for what it means to be pro-Israel president. I'll tell you about how a few years ago Nicki Haley, former U.S. ambassador to the UN, convened the Security Council to "discuss the aggression of Hamas against Israel. I sat in the Knesset and asked my staff to check back when there ever was such a thing in the UN, that spoke aggressively against Israel. It turned out that there was never such a thing. This is the first administration that has done such a thing.

"If Trump is elected I think the situation will continue, but it should be mentioned that Trump will no longer have electoral considerations. He will not have to please the Evangelicals and Jewish base. The only thing to worry about is Trump's statement that he's willing to enter negotiations with Iran on a new agreement. We must declare what our expectations are of this agreement and how we can safeguard our vital interests," concludes Dr. Michael Oren.