Israel’s population will more than double over the next 48 years, a new study shows, rising from roughly 8.7 million to just shy of 20 million by 2065.
According to data released by the Central Bureau of Statistics, Israel’s population will continue to grow at a fairly steady rate, with the overall growth rate averaging 1.8% over the next half a century, compared to 1.82% from 2006-2015.
Unlike most industrialized countries, Israel’s birth rate has remained well above the replacement rate, with a total fertility rate (the average number of children a woman has) of 3.1, compared to 1.85 for the US, 1.58 for the European Union, 1.39 in Japan, and 2.35 worldwide.
Israel will grow to 9 million citizens next year, hitting 10 million 2024, 11 million by 2030, 12 million by 2035, and 13 million by 2039.
By 2065, Israel will likely be home to 19.954 million citizens, 23 and a half times the number at the time of Israel’s birth in 1948.
But while Israel’s overall growth rate is expected to remain stable, the country’s demographic composition will shift dramatically, with much of the population growth driven by the high birth rates in the haredi community.
Haredi Jews, who currently constitute about 12% of the population, at present have a growth rate of 3.92%, more than double the national rate.
The CBS report suggests that while the haredi growth rate will likely decline slightly, it will remain relatively stable – and far higher than either the non-haredi Jewish growth rate or the Arab growth rate.
Between 2017 and 2065, the haredi rate of growth is expected to average 3.89%, compared to 1.03% for non-haredi Jews and 1.55% for Israeli Arabs, not including residents of the Palestinian Authority.
Israel’s Arab population is expected to remain stable at 21% through 2051, then decline gradually to 19% by 2063.
Haredi Jews will grow from just over one million, or 12%, in 2017, to 1.5 million or 15% in 2026 and 2.63 million or 20% by 2040.
By 2043, the haredi population will surpass Israel’s Arab population, and by 2065 haredim are expected to number nearly 6.5 million, or 32% of Israel’s total population, compared to 3.8 million Arabs and 9.66 million non-haredi Jews.
Nor will the demographic shift slow by 2065. According to the CBS study, among children 14 and under, haredim will already constitute an absolute majority in 2065, with half of the 5.5 million children expected to live in in Israel coming from the haredi community.
The Arab community, by comparison, will constitute just 15% of that age cohort by 2065, and non-haredi Jews a mere 35%, compared to 56% in 2015.