Anybody viewing today's headlines experiences a sense of dissonance in the state of Russo-Japanese relations. If one judges from the business news, relations are booming as both Toyota and Mitsubishi motors plan expanded automobile production in Russia to satisfy the growing Russian automobile market.
However, simultaneous with reports of economic cooperation, the military news signals the precise opposite. Russia is about to deploy cruise missiles and a revamped air defense system on the disputed Kuril Islands. The anti-ship missiles will cover traffic in Japan's territorial waters. Russia also will deploy Mi28 helicopters equipped with antitank missiles. Russian naval officers even hinted that the advanced French built Mistral helicopter carriers could also be deployed to the area. The arms buildup fulfills the promise of Russian President Dmitry Medvedev who pledged the modernization of Russian forces on the islands when the issue between Russia and Japan flared up in November.
When Japanese Foreign Minister Seiji Maeharavisited Moscow, he called for dialogue and the avoidance of an arms race. It is hard to imagine a Japanese Falklands scenario involving a lightning Japanese strike at the disputed islands. Japan needs Russia economically as an export market and as an energy supplier. Politically Japan needs Russian goodwill in terms of the North Korean crisis.
It is one thing to attempt to keep the Japanese claim alive because otherwise international law will consider Japan to have abandoned its claim. It is quite another to expect Japan, particularly with its attention to budgetary issues and it's pacifist tendencies since World War II, to suddenly reverse course and invite a shooting war with Russia by invading the islands.
Novosti published an analysis by Mikhail Barabanov, editor-in-chief of Moscow Defense Brief, to lend credence to the view that the islands were indeed vulnerable to a Japanese attack, dredging up memories of the 1904-1905 Russo Japanese war and Pearl Harbor. "Russia would do well to remember Japan's predilection for starting wars with sudden well-planned attacks, a tactic it has used in every war it has ever waged."
Barabanov then described the obsolete weapons currently on the islands and argued that with the buildup, the Russian garrisons would be able to hold out longer on till Russia could concentrate forces for a large-scale counter assault "including large landings of Russian forces." Barabanov however then admitted that "In the long term, any viable defense strategy must be based on the threat of escalating hostilities and mounting air and missile strikes over Japan's entire territory."
Russia can mount air and missile attacks on Japan without a military buildup. The Japanese government is not the Argentine junta which needed to legitimize itself by taking the Falklands in 1982. Japan is a crowded country that realizes its vulnerability to aerial attacks and therefore would never consider violent means. Japan also knows that Russia will react militarily, something the Argentine government did not expect from Britain. If Margaret Thatcher had not been Prime Minister at the time, perhaps the Argentine generals would have been correct.
It is therefore necessary to consider other explanations.Liu Qianwriting in Global Times, the English edition of the Chinese People's Daily attempted to spin the development to China's advantage."To some Russian experts, the intensified military operations between the US, Japan and South Korea in the Asia-Pacific region is not only aimed at intimidating North Korea and China, but also displayed their military might to Russia."
In other words the Russian buildup was not primarily aimed at Japan but at the United States. Just as the United States had angered China by taking Vietnam's side in its territorial dispute with China, the Americans had sided with Japan over the islands.
Liu appears to be more on target when he connects the Russian buildup to the enhanced status of the Asia-Pacific region in world politics When the Asia-Pacific region became the focus of world attention, with many countries enhancing their military and economic power there, Russia had to admit that it had fallen behind.
The Japanese islands are nothing when compared with the boundary disputes between Russia and China. On the Russia Chinese border, 60 million Chinese face 6 million Russians. If the Russians took a Japanese threat seriously they would be foolish not to entertain similar or even greater suspicions towards China.
It is more plausible to view the Russian buildup as analogous to the Russian naval buildup in the Mediterranean during the Brezhnev era. A naval presence in a strategic area was a way of signaling Washington and others that the Soviet Union was a force to be reckoned with. Currently the southerly position of the Kuril Islands can leverage Russia's position in the region and therefore, when disputes arise, can help Russia claim a place at the table.
For Dmitry Medvedev, the ability to move around warships, helicopters and advanced battle tanks confers the added bonus of making him look tough and presidential, as defense matters are the purview of the Russian president. This is a public relations asset as we approach presidential elections in Russia next year.