Four Scenarios After Expulsion/Withdrawal

An intelligence research center has drawn up four possibilities for "the day after": Democracy in the Palestinian Authority (PA), all-out war by terrorists, occasional terrorism, and anarchy.

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Tzvi Ben Gedalyahu , | updated: 10:13 PM

The scenarios were drawn up by researchers at the Intelligence and Terrorism Information Center headed by Lt.-Col. (res.) Dr. Reuven Erlich. The researchers noted they could not state which scenario would take place because of extreme instability in Gaza.

The most optimistic possibility is a long period of calm during which the Palestinian Authority (PA) will try to re-organize and overcome terror. "The United States, The European Union and possibly Egypt will encourage [PA chairman] Abu Mazen to work with the PA institutions," according to the Intelligence Center.

Under this scenario, the PA will try to democratize its government and establish a temporary Arab state with the cooperation of Gaza strongman Mohamed Dahlan.

The second option is all-out war between Israel and terrorists. This option envisions advanced Kassam rockets that have a range of nine kilometers (five miles) and have been stockpiled during the past few months when Israel has eased restrictions on movement of Arabs. Researchers said the rockets have been tested in launches off the Mediterranean Coast and easily can reach population centers in Ashkelon, where a huge electrical power station is located. The rockets also can reach Tel Aviv, Afula and Bet She'an from Samaria, and Jerusalem from both Judea and Samaria.

The third possibility is a continuation of today's occasional terrorist attacks but with more cooperation between the PA and terrorists. Researchers wrote that the security fence will help prevent suicide bombers from attacking and that terrorists are more likely to strike soldiers and Jewish communities in Judea and Samaria. The report did not estimate how Israel would react to such attacks.

The fourth and last scenario describes anarchy in the PA which could include battles between the PA police forces and terrorist organizations while Israel remains on the sidelines.

The report did not include the possibility that Israel and the PA will renew negotiations towards implementing the American road map plan.

It noted that the Arabs are in a dilemma on cooperating with Israel because both sides have made territorial demands that contradict each other. Israel has vowed not to hand over to the PA all of Judea and Samaria, which the PA lists as a condition for peace.


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