Poll: 'Never Bibi' bloc reaches 62-seat majority

Likud continues to fall in latest poll as Yesh Atid surges, giving anti-Netanyahu coalition majority in next Knesset - even without Yamina.

David Rosenberg ,

נתניהו, סער ובנט בימים של שיתוף פעולה
נתניהו, סער ובנט בימים של שיתוף פעולה
צילום: מרים אלסטר, פלאש 90

Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu’s Likud party continues to fall in the polls, losing its double-digit lead as Netanyahu’s rivals are now projected to reach a majority in the Knesset.

According to the new poll, which was conducted by Panels Politics and published Monday morning on Radio 103FM, if new elections were held today, the left-wing – Arab bloc would win 42 seats. That’s up from 40 seats in the previous Panels Politics poll, which was released on February 26th.

The right-wing – religious bloc fell from 59 seats in the previous poll to 58 seats.

The two right-of-center parties who are committed to unseating Netanyahu – New Hope and Yisrael Beytenu – received a total of 20 seats.

The Likud remains the largest party in the Knesset, but according to the new poll it has lost its double-digit lead over its nearest rival, Yesh Atid. While the Likud led Yesh Atid by 12 seats in the previous Panels Politics poll, in Monday’s poll the Likud’s lead fell to nine seats.

The poll found that if new elections were held today, the Likud would win 28 seats, down from the 36 seats it won last year, while Yesh Atid would win 19 seats.

The New Hope party fell to 13 seats in the new poll, down from 14 in last week’s poll, while Yisrael Beytenu held steady at seven seats.

The Joint Arab List received nine seats, while the United Arab List (Ra’am) which split from the Joint Arab List failed to cross the 3.25% electoral threshold.

Shas is projected to win eight seats, compared to seven for United Torah Judaism.

Yamina remained at 11 seats, while the Religious Zionist Party – Otzma Yehudit alliance held steady at four seats – just over the 3.25% electoral threshold.

Labor inched upwards from five seats to six, while Meretz and the Blue and White party barely crossed the threshold with four seats each.

When asked which candidate they preferred for the premiership in head-to-head matchups, the poll’s respondents favored Netanyahu over his top three rivals – New Hope’s Gideon Sa’ar, Yamina’s Naftali Bennett, and Yesh Atid’s Yair Lapid – but they did so by the narrowest margins in any poll in recent years.

Netanyahu still holds a wide margin over Lapid, with 50% of respondents preferring the incumbent compared to just 37% who said they prefer Lapid.

But former Likud MK Gideon Sa’ar found himself in a statistical dead-heat with Netanyahu, with the prime minister leading him by a single point, 43% to 42%.

Bennett trailed Netanyahu by four points, 36% to 40%.