What You Need To Know
Did Pollsters Get the US Election Result Right?

The storylines surrounding the 2020 US election has made it one of the most dramatic we have ever seen anywhere in the world.

Tags: Spotlight
Guest Post ,

אתר הצבעה בארה"ב
אתר הצבעה בארה"ב
צילום: ISTOCK

The storylines surrounding the 2020 US election has made it one of the most dramatic we have ever seen anywhere in the world. However, if you take away everything that has happened during the vote count and what is happening afterwards, what about the actual result?

Pollsters before the election were predicting a strong Biden lead and one that would not only give him enough votes to take him to the White House, but he would also go there with a strong majority.

That has been lost a little in the confusion afterwards but is a fact of this election. Joe Biden has won and won with a comfortable enough margin to sit in the White House without too much controversy.

So, did the pollsters get it right then?

The Vote Count Confusion

One of the biggest reasons why we are not talking about the pollsters right now is because of the confusion over the count and how it was completed. There was a huge skew in the votes when split between in person votes and postal votes, which made tracking the election very difficult.

At one point, it appeared as though Donald Trump would win a second term in the White House, which would have left pollsters with a lot of egg on their face. They wouldn’t have got this wrong, they would have got it drastically wrong.

That wasn’t the case at the end though, and if you take out the middle section and purely focus on what pollsters predicted before and the final result of the 2020 US election, they were pretty much spot on.

Pollsters won’t come out of this with as much credit as they deserve, all because of how the votes were counted and the confusion surrounding that.

What Did the Betting Markets Think?

The betting markets favoured a Joe Biden win before the polls closed, though not as strongly as some of the pollsters did.

Betting on political events have grown considerably over the past decade and it is always fascinating to compare the thoughts of bookmakers with pollsters. Using the risk free bet offers available at freebets.com, punters can get involved in elections and other political events with many bookmakers.

When the count started, betting turned in play, which is where you bet on the event while it is taking place. Eventually, Donald Trump moved into favouritism, and that lasted for quite a few hours while confusion reigned.

However, as it became clearer what votes had been counted and what was to come, the betting markets moved Joe Biden back to being favourite, where he stayed until the race was called.

Again, just like with pollsters, if you take out the confusing period in the middle, the betting markets got this one right and had Joe Biden win as favourite.

Are Pollsters Still to be Trusted?

We are going to see a real discussion about pollsters over the next few years and into the next big US election. However, much of this will be caused by the way in which people voted in 2020.

We shouldn’t see anything like this again, so the period of confusion that we had overnight should never come back.

If you take all of this out of the equation, pollsters will look back and say that they roughly got this one right, and that their work can be trusted in the future.

This was a very strange election for many reasons, and we still haven’t seen the final element played out yet, so more drama could follow. Take all of that away though and the pollsters got this one right.



top