'There's a structural problem with polls'

Head of the American Studies Program at University of Haifa discusses who he sees as biggest winners and losers in the election.

Arutz Sheva Staff ,

Trump and Biden in final 2020 debate in Nashville, Tennessee
Trump and Biden in final 2020 debate in Nashville, Tennessee
Reuters



As the vote count in the US continues, Eli Cook, Senior Lecturer and Head of the American Studies Program at University of Haifa, discussed who he saw as the biggest winners and losers are thus far and what we can expect in the next few days.

Main takeaway?

"The fat lady hasn't sung yet, many counties are still in play, especially many urban areas where there are likely Biden voters."

What now?

"It's very clear that Trump will try to stop the counting of votes as quickly as possible. He will try to cancel votes and look for injunctions. It will be a real question if courts will go along with it. Republican judges might go along with Trump if he's going to win, but if Biden has a strong lead, I'd be surprised- despite their ideological winnings - that they would throw out a lot of good votes for no good reason."

"The next few days are crucial. But if there's a narrative where the victory is polarized and unclear, then Trump may be able to push for legal machinations and it could work - Trump has three conservative judges on the Supreme Court. We could have a lot of surprises yet ahead."

He said the "big losers" so far are "Pollsters; the Blue Wave: Democrats will keep the house but without much of a lead and the Senate will remain Republican which will have huge ramifications. If Biden wins, there is very little he can do with a Republican Senate."

Regarding who the "big winners" are, Cook said that "Trump has a big win with Latinos; seniors. The notion some minorities are Democrats because they are a minority is destroyed; Texas is not and will not be in play for Democrats; Meanwhile, Biden did well with working class."

He asserted that this election was "not a replay of 2016." "The GOP attempt to delegitimize mail-in ballots is why he will lose. Trump's been planning this for months; It's a shame to see a president delegitimize the election process. Contrary to what he's saying, there's no evidence of fraud."

Cook also said that absentee ballots are not much of a wild card: "78% of mail-in votes went to Biden - huge lead in mail-in votes."

What's the deal with the polls?:

"We need to see how bad the polling error is; there were huge errors in Florida and Wisconsin. There's a structural problem with polls. There are lots of theories: It's difficult to get working-class people to tell you what they honestly think about elections. There could have been shy Trump voters or voters that are hard to get a hold of. The Latino male vote was heavily misconstrued: There's a difference between Latino voters across the country and the Latino vote is complex."



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