Biden and Trump
Biden and TrumpREUTERS

Former Vice President Joe Biden’s lead over President Donald Trump has shrunk to just over two points, according to a new poll.

With less than two weeks until the November election, Biden’s edge nationally has fallen to 2.3 points in the latest IBD/TIPP poll, which shows the Democratic nominee with 48.1% of likely voters, compared to 45.8% for Trump in a four-way match up.

The Libertarian Party candidate Jo Jorgensen is projected to receive 3.0% of the vote, with Green Party candidate Howie Hawkins at 0.9%.

Biden has fallen by 3.8 points since October 12th, while support for Trump has increased by 2.4 points.

Since October 13th, Biden’s lead in the IBD/TIPP poll has fallen by 8.6 points, from 10.9 points to 2.3.

Trump still trails Biden among independent voters, put has cut Biden’s lead from double digits down to four points, 45% to Trump’s 41%.

The president is also outperforming with his base in comparison to Biden, winning among Republicans by a margin of 94% to 4%, compared to Biden’s narrower 90% to 7% lead among Democrats.

But Trump is still losing more of his 2016 voters than his Democratic challenger.

Just 89% of 2016 Trump voters say they’ll back the president again, with 7% saying they plan to vote for Biden. Among voters who backed Hillary Clinton in 2016, just 3% say they will vote for Trump this time, compared to 95% who support Biden.

Suburban voters, who backed Trump in 2016 over Clinton 50% to 45%, now favor Biden 50.5% to 42%.

Biden also leads heavily among 2020 likely voters who did not vote in 2016, holding a 26-point edge, 57% to 31%. Among voters who backed third-party candidates in 2016, Biden leads 39% to 30%.

On average, Biden’s lead over Trump has fallen from a high of 10.3 points on October 11th, according to the RealClearPolitics aggregate of polls, to 8.6 points.

Recent polls still show Trump trailing in most battleground states, though in some key states the president has cut heavily in Biden’s lead.

In Pennsylvania, which Trump won by less than one point in 2016, Trump now trails Biden by an average of 3.5 points, according to the RealClearPolitics aggregate of polls, less than half of the 7.3 point lead Biden enjoyed on October 12th.

In the latest Reuters poll, Biden’s lead in Pennsylvania shrank from seven points to four, 49% to 45%, while a CNBC poll found Biden leading by just two points, 49% to 47%, compared to four points at the beginning of the month. A poll by Trafalgar also shows Biden up by two points, 47% to 45%.

In Florida, Biden’s lead in the RCP aggregate has fallen from a peak of 4.5 points in early October to 1.6 points. A new University of North Florida poll shows Biden leading by one point, 48% to 47%, down from a six-point lead in early October.

A poll by The Hill shows the race as a tie, 48% to 48%, while a Trafalgar poll gives Trump a two-point lead, 48% to 46%.