A series of new polls shows former Vice President and presumptive 2020 Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden beating President Donald Trump in four key battleground states, while Trump holds a narrow lead in Ohio.
Polls released by CNN Sunday show Biden leading in Florida, Arizona, and Michigan, all states Trump won in 2016.
In Michigan, a state Democrats carried in every presidential election from 1992 to 2012 before Trump won the state by less than one point, Biden currently leads Trump by 12 points, 52% to 40%, according to the CNN poll,
Biden leads by smaller margins in both Florida and Arizona, with 51% to Trump’s 46% in the former, and 49% to Trump’s 45% in the latter.
The CNN polls surveyed registered voters, rather than likely voters. Historically, presidential polling which do not screen for likely voters have shown a bias in favor of Democratic candidates.
An NBC/Marist poll released on Sunday, which also surveyed registered voters, showed Trump trailing by five in Arizona, 45% to 50%.
A third poll released Sunday, by CBS News/YouGov, surveyed 1,211 likely voters in Ohio, and found the president leading by just one point in the historic bellwether state, 46% to 45%. In 2016, Trump won Ohio by 8.1 points, 51.3% to 43.2%, though the final RealClearPolitics average of polls gave him just a 2.2-point advantage.
A Gravis poll released Saturday showed Trump trailing Biden by just three points in Pennsylvania, a state he won by less than one point in 2016.
Trump has trailed Biden in Pennsylvania –Biden’s home state – throughout the 2020 presidential cycle, including in recent polls by Fox News, Rasmussen and Trafalgar, which showed Trump down by 11, 5, and 5 points respectively.