Election 2020:
New polls show Biden leading Trump in Texas and key battleground states

Fallout from coronavirus pandemic, race riots appears to have weakened Trump's position, with Biden leading by double digits in key states.

David Rosenberg ,

Donald Trump
Donald Trump

President Donald Trump is trailing his presumed 2020 challenger, former Vice President Joe Biden, by a wide margin in a string of new polls.

The polls show Biden consistently leading Trump both nationally and in key battleground states.

A new CNBC poll of 800 registered voters shows Biden with a nine-point lead over Trump nationally, 47% to 38%, while a YouGov poll of 1,230 registered voters gave Biden an eight-point lead over Trump, 49% to 41%.

Three other recent polls, however, showed Biden with a double-digit lead over Trump nationwide, with a New York Times/Siena poll showing Biden leading by 14 points, 50% to 36%, compared to polls by Harris and Fox News which each gave Biden a 12-point lead, 56% to 44% and 50% to 38% respectively. Unlike the other polls, the Harris poll surveyed likely voters.

According to the RealClearPolitics average of polls, Biden now leads Trump nationally by 10.0 points, 50.6% to 40.6%.

A series of Fox News polls found Biden also leading Trump not only in key battleground states like North Carolina, Georgia, and Florida, but also in the Republican-stronghold of Texas, where Biden now leads Trump by one point, 45% to 44%.

Biden’s lead in Texas is well within the poll’s margin of error, and Trump still leads Biden there in the RealClearPolitics average of polls. Trump won Texas by nine points in 2016, the narrowest margin for a Republican in a presidential race since Bob Dole carried the state by less than five points in 1996.

In North Carolina, the Fox News poll showed Biden with a two-point lead, 47% to 45%, with identical results in Georgia.

Biden leads Trump in Florida by a whopping nine-points, however, outside of the poll’s margin of error, with 49% of the vote compared to 40% for Trump. Trump won Florida by just over one point in 2016.

But polling in Rust Belt states which were key to Trump’s victory in 2016 show Biden with an even greater lead.

New New York Times/Siena polls show Biden leading Trump by 11 points in Wisconsin, 49% to 38%, and in Michigan, 47% to 36%. Trump won both states by less than a point in 2016.

In Pennsylvania, Trump trails Biden by ten points, 40% to 50%, while Biden leads in North Carolina by nine points, 49% to 40%.

Even in Arizona, which has gone Republican in every presidential race but one in the past seven decades, Biden now leads Trump, with a projected seven point lead of 48% to 41%.

On Wednesday, a Quinnipiac poll showed Biden also leading Trump by a single point in Ohio, 46% to 45%. Trump carried Ohio by more than eight points in 2016.

A Marquette poll in Wisconsin shows Biden leading Trump by eight points, 49% to 41%.

While pollsters faced criticism in 2016 for largely failing to predict Trump’s narrow wins in key states like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan, Biden’s margin’s over Trump exceed Hillary Clinton’s polling performance in 2016.

In Florida, for instance, Trump led Clinton by a razor-thin margin of 0.3% in the RCP average of polls at this point in the 2016 race. Today, however, Biden leads by an average of 6.8 points.

There are some exceptions, however, where Trump is outperforming his June 2016 polling. At this point in the 2016 race, Clinton led Trump in Ohio by an average of 2.7 points. The RCP average currently shows a tie between Biden and Trump.

In Wisconsin, Trump currently trails Biden by an average of eight points, 40.8 to 48.8, while in late June of 2016, he trailed Clinton by an average of 11 points.

Elsewhere, however, Trump trails his June 2016 polling numbers. In Arizona, Clinton led Trump in late June 2016 by an average of one point. Today, Biden leads by an average of four points.

At this point in the race in 2016, Clinton led Trump by just half a point on average in Pennsylvania. Today, Biden leads by 6.3 points, according to the RCP average.