Hebrew U. researchers find way to predict spread of coronavirus

New model predicts slowing down in rate of coronavirus spread thanks to preventative measures taken by Israel.

Arutz Sheva Staff ,

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police enforce Health Ministry orders
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According to a model by researchers from the Racah Institute of Physics at Hebrew University, the spread of the novel coronavirus can be predicted by the monitoring of coronavirus patients who are in serious or moderate condition.

The researchers presented a model that estimates the expected mortality over the next 10 days out of the number of patients in moderate to serious condition.

The data suggests that the preventive measures taken have already had beneficial effects and further improvement is expected. The curve for the number of patients in moderate and severe condition is less sharp than it was before and indicates the spread of the virus is beginning to slow down.

Prof. Nadav Katz of the Racah Institute at the Hebrew University said: "The more moderate increase in the number of middle / severe patients is the result of internalization of safety instructions and their application by the public. The rate of infection with the disease decreases, and if fewer people become infected, the number of patients in moderate to severe condition will decrease accordingly. And fewer people will die."

The researchers also noted that a further improvement in the trend for patients hospitalized in moderate to serious condition is also expected to improve in the coming days as a result of the tightening of preventive measures 10 days ago. They noted that local outbreaks can change this trend so it is important to protect at risk populations such as the elderly or those with preexisting conditions.