Three new polls show Blue and White leading the Likud with the Knesset deadlocked - again

First polls taken after parties register show neither side with majority. Will Yamina gain seats - and will Otzma be in the next Knesset?

David Rosenberg,

Netanyahu and Gantz
Netanyahu and Gantz
Reuters

Three new polls released Thursday after parties registered for the Knesset election Wednesday show neither side with a decisive advantage, despite the Blue and White party holding a consistent lead over the Likud.

According to a poll conducted by Midgam on Thursday and released by Channel 12 Thursday night, if new elections were held today, the right-wing – religious bloc would hold a narrow edge over the left-wing – Arab bloc, with 57 seats to the Left’s 55, while Yisrael Beytenu, which has called for a unity government, would win eight seats.

Blue and White would be the largest party in the Knesset once again, the poll shows, with 34 seats, compared to 32 for the Likud.

The reformed Yamina alliance of three small rightist parties – Jewish Home, National Union, and the New Right – would win 10 seats, three more than it won in September 2019, while the Otzma Yehudit party would fail to cross the 3.25% electoral threshold, receiving just 2% of the vote.

Shas would win eight seats, down from the nine it currently has, while United Torah Judaism would hold steady at seven seats.

The Joint Arab List would retain its 13 seats, while the united Labor-Meretz-Gesher ticket would win a disappointing eight seats, three below the eleven the Labor-Gesher and Meretz lists won combined in September 2019.

The poll also found that 40% of Israelis say Binyamin Netanyahu is their preferred candidate for the premiership, compared to 38% who favored Blue and White chief Benny Gantz, 10% who said they had no favorite, and 6% who did not know.

Channel 12 – Midgam (Current number of seats in parentheses)

Blue and White: 34 (33)
Likud: 32 (32)
Joint List: 13 (13)
Yamina: 10 (7)
Yisrael Beytenu: 8 (8)
Labor-Meretz: 8 (11)
Shas: 8 (9)
UTJ: 7 (7)
Otzma: 0 (0)

Right-Religious Bloc: 57
Left-Arab Bloc: 55
Unity (Yisrael Beytenu): 8

A second poll, conducted by Camil Fuchs for Channel 13, found that if new elections were held today, the right-wing – religious bloc would again win 55 seats, the same number it won in September, while the left-wing – Arab bloc would retain its 57 seats, with Yisrael Beytenu again winning eight seats.

The Likud trailed Blue and White by three seats in this poll, 31 to 34, with the Joint Arab List gaining a seat and rising to 14 mandates.

The Labor-Meretz-Gesher alliance would win nine seats if new elections were held today, while Shas would plummet from nine seats to six. UTJ would hold stable at seven seats.

The Yamina party would retain the seven seats it won in September, while Otzma Yehudit would win four seats.

Forty percent of respondents said they prefer Netanyahu as premier, compared to 36% who chose Gantz.

Channel 13 – Camil Fuchs (Current number of seats in parentheses)

Blue and White: 34 (33)
Likud: 31 (32)
Joint List: 14 (13)
Yamina: 7 (7)
Yisrael Beytenu: 8 (8)
Labor-Meretz: 9 (11)
Shas: 6 (9)
UTJ: 7 (7)
Otzma: 4 (0)

Right-Religious Bloc: 55
Left-Arab Bloc: 57
Unity (Yisrael Beytenu): 8

A third poll, conducted by Kantar on behalf of Kan, showed the left-wing – Arab bloc expanding its lead over the Right, rising from 57 seats to 58, while the right-wing – religious bloc remains at 55 and Yisrael Beytenu declines to seven seats.

In this poll, Blue and White soared to 36 seats, while the Likud fell to 31.

The Joint Arab List received 13 seats in the poll, compared to nine for the Labor-Meretz-Gesher joint ticket.

Shas would retain its nine seats, the poll found, while UTJ would rise from seven to eight.

Yamina would retain its seven seats, while Otzma Yehudit would receive 2.2% of the vote, failing to cross the electoral threshold.

Kan – Kantar (Current number of seats in parentheses)

Blue and White: 36 (33)
Likud: 31 (32)
Joint List: 13 (13)
Yamina: 7 (7)
Yisrael Beytenu: 7 (8)
Labor-Meretz: 9 (11)
Shas: 9 (9)
UTJ: 8 (7)
Otzma: 0 (0)

Right-Religious Bloc: 55
Left-Arab Bloc: 58
Unity (Yisrael Beytenu): 7




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