Poll: Jewish Home tops New Right, Blue & White leads Likud

How would formation of broad right-wing union affect the balance of power in the Knesset? Could a Labor-Meretz alliance boost the Left?

David Rosenberg,

Bennett, Peretz
Bennett, Peretz
Flash 90

A new poll shows the Jewish Home – Otzma Yehudit alliance gaining momentum, surpassing the New Right and easily clearing the electoral threshold.

According to the poll, conducted by Maagar Mohot and published by Israel Hayom Friday, if new elections were held today with no new alliances between factions on either the Left or Right, the right-wing bloc would fall slightly, declining from 55 seats to 54, while the left-wing – Arab bloc would rise from 57 seats to 59. Yisrael Beytenu, which has called for a unity government, would decline from eight seats to seven.

The Blue and White party would remain the largest faction in the Knesset with 34 seats, a gain of one compared to the September election, while the Likud would fall from 32 seats to 30.

The predominantly Arab Joint List party would reach a new high of 15 seats, compared to 13 in both the September 2019 and the 2015 elections.

Shas, which won nine seats in September, would fall to seven seats if new elections were held today, while the United Torah Judaism party would rise from seven to eight.

The Labor-Gesher alliance would fall from six seats to five, while the far-left Democratic Union would hold steady at five seats.

The New Right party is projected to win four seats if it runs alone, a gain of one compared to the three it won in September as a faction within the larger Yamina list.

The joint Jewish Home – Otzma Yehudit ticket, however, would win five seats – even without the National Union faction. If the National Union party runs alone, it would receive just 1% of the vote – well below the 3.25% minimum threshold needed to enter the Knesset.

Scenario 1: No New Alliances

The poll also projected that if the parties to the left of Blue and White – Labor-Gesher and the Democratic Union – formed an alliance, it would actually weaken the left-wing – Arab bloc, which would 57 seats, rather than 59 if the two left-wing parties remained separate.

In this scenario, the Right would rise to 56 seats, while Yisrael Beytenu would win seven seats.

The Blue and White party would win 33 seats – the same number it currently has but one less than it would win if Labor and the Democratic Union remained separate.

The Joint Arab List would win 13 seats, while the new joint left-wing list would win 11 seats.

Shas and United Torah Judaism would receive seven seats each, while the New Right and Jewish Home – Otzma lists would win six seats each.

Scenario 2: Left-Wing Alliance

If all four of the smaller right-wing parties – the New Right, Jewish Home, Otzma Yehudit, and the National Union – formed a single, united ticket, it would win 11 seats, the poll projects.

The right-wing – religious bloc as a whole would win 55 seats in this scenario, the same number it won in September, while the left-wing – Arab bloc would win 58, one more than it currently has. Yisrael Beytenu would receive seven seats.

In this scenario, the Likud would trail Blue and White by five seats, 29 to 34, while the Joint Arab List would win 14 seats.

Shas would again receive seven seats, while UTJ would win eight.

Labor-Gesher and the Democratic Union would win five apiece.

Scenario 3: Right-Wing Alliance

The Maagar Mohot poll also surveyed respondents how they would vote if the National Union joined with the Jewish Home – Otzma Yehudit alliance, while the New Right runs independently.

In such a scenario, the two separate lists (New Right versus the Jewish Home-Otzma-National Union) receive a total of 13 seats, two more than if the four factions ran together.

The New Right would win five seats, while the Jewish Home – Otzma – National Union ticket would receive eight.

The right-wing bloc would rise to 56 seats, while the left-wing – Arab bloc would win 57 seats.

Scenario 4: Partial Right-Wing Alliance